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September 17th, 2022 
Awake Goy
He needs a decisive – and crucially, quick – victory. This could come sooner than expected. But it probably won’t be in Ukraine. Instead look south-eastward, to the South Caucasus and another of Russia’s backyards where this week fighting has flared up again between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the deadliest since a fragile ceasefire between those two was brokered by Moscow in 2020.
Theirs is a conflict that stretches back decades to the dying days of the Soviet Union when Russian-backed Armenian forces invaded and occupied Karabakh – an Armenian majority ethnic region of Azerbaijan.
A generation later, a new 44-day conflict two years ago saw the tables turned, with most of those lands returned to Azerbaijan, and only a Kremlin-sponsored ceasefire preventing Armenia from surrendering them all.
Now Armenia is in danger of losing again should the latest, deadly, cross-border shooting continue. Yet this time, bogged down in Ukraine, Russia’s response seems different.
No doubt fearing the end of his career is nigh, Armenia’s current prime minister Nikol Pashinyan has called on military intervention by CSTO – Russia’s six-country NATO-copycat military alliance.
It is quite a rebuff for Pashinyan – as the current chair of that very defence pact – when it’s leading member Russia says no. But western analysts are missing a trick if they think this is the end of the matter.
War with Azerbaijan is not something Armenia can win – not on its own. It is hopelessly outgunned, outmanoeuvred, and out-droned by its larger, wealthier, and better equipped neighbour.
Russia presents an obvious ally. But when Russia refuses to come to the military aid of its smaller partner Armenia, it does not cut the cord between these two closely aligned countries – but simply makes Armenia more desperate.
And it’s more than probable Putin likes that and in refusing to intervene militarily is holding out for something much more substantial to materialise. Thanks to Armenia’s dire straits that something is union with Russia.
Few have heard of “The Union State” – but that’s the official name for the fusion of Russia and Belarus into one economic, and political, body. Both nations maintain their own external relations but – for all other intents and purposes – they are one country.
But since its founding in 1998 the Union State has had no other members. That may be about to change. Opposition politicians in Armenia – led by a former president and board member of Sistema, one of Russia’s largest companies – is calling for the merger to be done.
With current PM Pashinyan cornered, it’s easy to see how “Union” may now be the only way out of the seemingly inescapable situation Armenia now finds itself in.
But should the government acquiesce to those voices, it may give Putin the quick victory he needs to regain support at home: a significant territorial gain that blends neatly into his ambitions for an expanded Russian empire – all without a single Russian life lost.
Instability in the Caucasus has always been in Putin’s interests. Armenia could – with peace and shorn of Russian influence achieve much more.
Azerbaijan – which rejected membership of CSTO and turned westward – is today increasing its gas supplies to Europe by 30 per cent on last year, to help mitigate the crisis caused by Russia’s weaponization of energy supplies.
That gas flows through pipes that bypass Armenia. A peace dividend might change that – allowing for a new, more direct pipeline to Europe from Azerbaijan across Armenia, and opening up trade for Armenia between its neighbours – but then Russia would lose its grip on all economic and diplomatic decision-making in the country.
So it’s no coincidence that just last week Putin stated “Armenia is not a foreign country to us”, echoing his articles and statements that have been advocating an Armenia-Russia “union” for more than a decade.
The world must not allow this to happen. The west should not ignore this crisis. Armenia must be encouraged to return to the negotiating table, once and for all. Should peace efforts collapse in the Caucasus, only Putin’s interests are served. And with a tasty morsel to dangle in front of the success-starved Russian public, his revanchist ambitions in Ukraine – and elsewhere – will only be emboldened.
Please wait…
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