World Economic Forum warning heralds a challenge not cause for despair

By
Ruth Sunderland

Last updated at 1:19 AM on 12th January 2012

Strong stuff from the World Economic Forum, ahead of its annual talk-fest at the Swiss ski resort of Davos, a magnet for the great, the good and the self-important.

The Forum warns in its annual analysis of global risks that we are in danger of sinking into an economic dystopia, where ‘life is full of hardship and devoid of hope’ for much of humanity.

It foresees a world in which many young people are unemployed, disenfranchised and resentful, and where a growing elderly population is dependent for support on heavily indebted governments.

Meeting: The World Economic Fund will hold its yearly conference in Davos, Switzerland, later this month

Meeting: The World Economic Fund will hold its yearly conference in Davos, Switzerland, later this month

The picture it paints is of a return to the dangerous climate last seen
in the 1930s, with inequality and hardship fuelling nationalism,
populism and protectionism.

The authors talk of a sense of
receding hope on an ‘unprecedented scale’ and of diminished faith in
governments’ ability to restore prosperity.
This is a very dark view, but one that political and business leaders
should take seriously, as a warning of what might happen if they fail to
live up to their responsibilities.

As the Forum says, the financial crisis has brought about a profound
cultural as well as economic shift. For the first time in generations,
people do not automatically expect their children to be better off than
they are.

And for the first time in more than a
decade, people are being forced to rethink their attitudes towards
entitlement – whether that be to state pensions, or, at the other end of
the scale to large bonuses.

Governments and individuals are in the painful process of trying to wean
themselves off reliance on debt.
Attempts to address these issues involve the rewriting of cherished
social contracts between states and citizens, which inevitably creates
unrest, which is only fuelled by glaring inequalities.

These dire warnings are depressing,
but also useful in spelling out, in uncompromising language, the
possible consequences of failing to tackle these problems.
But it should be read as a guide to the scale of the challenges, not as
the counsel of despair.

Scotch mist

Sir Richard Branson picked up RBS which was sold at a loss to taxpayers

Sir Richard Branson picked up RBS which was sold at a loss to taxpayers

The achievements of UKFI, the body which manages the government
shareholdings in the state-supported banks, so far include giving the
nod to enormous bonuses for top bankers and selling Northern Rock to Sir
Richard Branson at a loss to taxpayers.

The internal promotions following the retirement of chairman Sir David
Cooksey, announced yesterday, suggest it is unlikely to change its
approach.

Robin Budenberg, the chief executive,
steps into the chair, and former investment banker Jim O’Neil, who has
been shunted up the escalator to become chief executive, has interesting
qualifications for the job.

In a previous life at investment bank
Merrill Lynch, he acted as an adviser on Royal Bank of Scotland’s
disastrous takeover of ABN-Amro. So at the age of 71, Cooksey is
probably wise to take his retirement.

As he observes, disposing of the taxpayer’s £45.5billion stake in Royal
Bank of Scotland and the £17.5billion in Lloyds Banking Group will take
a lot longer than originally expected.

Since both of these disasters are
exports from north of the border –the old Bank of Scotland is
responsible for a large part of Lloyds’ woes – perhaps Alex Salmond
would like to take responsibility for the blighted banks.

He might argue that London-led
economic policies and weak bank regulation played a part in their
downfall, but who was responsible for that? Fellow Scot, Gordon Brown.

Unlike for like

Justin King, Sainsbury’s plausible
and perma-tanned chief executive, was bullish about the supermarket’s
performance, hailing it as a ‘record-breaking Christmas’.

Scratch the surface, though, and the performance is not quite as good as it looks.
Sales at stores open for at least a year were up 2.1pc excluding petrol but including VAT.

Stacking up: Sainsbury's report a record-breaking Christmas. But look closer and the results might not be as cheery

Staking up figures: Sainsbury’s report a record-breaking Christmas. But look closer and the results might not be as cheery

This figure, though, is not a true
‘like for like’, as they call it in retail jargon, because some of the
increase was down to King’s programme of adding space by extending
stores.

Take out the amount attributable to these extensions and the hike in VAT, and the underlying picture is quite a lot weaker.
King reckons customers are becoming more discerning, wasting less and
saving up for blowouts on special occasions, but concedes sales volumes
are at best flat.

The round of Christmas trading statements so far, from MS and now
Sainsbury’s, may suggest some of the Christmas retail gloom was
overdone.

But the store chains are looking at
different periods, in different ways, and have been eating into their
margins with promotions. Best wait for the profit figures before drawing
conclusions.

Here’s what other readers have said. Why not add your thoughts,
or debate this issue live on our message boards.

The comments below have not been moderated.

Thanks Ruth for a welcome dose of realism, but from the headline I’d hoped for greater emphasis on the challenge and solution. If in the distant future the history books are to record that the world was saved from Armageddon, as one might consider imperative, then it will speak of a great new leader. It is clear enough that the people in power do not know what to do or even what they are doing wrong. It is their way of thinking that got us into this mess. The saviour will have inspired the masses to endure and overcome tough times, by leading by example with not only wisdom, intelligence and integrity but with the restraint, bravery, and humility the task required. They will have been experienced in business of good education, but probably not good-looking, not of privileged background and not of the political establishment, as those ‘advantages’ will have limited their life-lessons and thinking. Our first task is to find that person.
All those that would apply, step forward now.

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