Will M.A.D. Turn to MAD?

 
Rafe MAIR
Strategic-Culture.org
11.02.2012
 
The Cold War avoided war amongst the major nations because Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) so that major country leaders, however provoked, did not want to die or see their homelands destroyed.

These powers, minus Israel about which more in a moment, also demanded that no one else join in and to monitor not to say enforce this they set up the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as an international organization that seeks to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and to inhibit its use for any military purpose. The IAEA reports to both the UN General Assembly and Security Council. It has no intrinsic power to inspect or make decisions but we must tread carefully when discussing the IAEA after they inspected and found no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq which kept the UN from supporting the US when, in 2003 the US was pledging to destroy the weapons that weren’t there and bring peace and democracy, American style, to that beleaguered nation.

I have nothing to say about the state of democracy in Iran. I have no doubt that Iran is closing in on getting nuclear weapons capable of reaching Israel. My concern is how do we address this? I need hardly mention the disarray generally in the Middle East but much of that disarray is caused by Israel. (Here’s my obligatory statement that I’m not anti-Semitic and some of my best friends are …).

Israel has nuclear weapons which, presumably, are capable of reaching Iran, but has never admitted it even though it jailed whistle blower Mordechai Vanunu who exposed their nuclear arsenal to the world and paid for it with 18 years in jail, mostly in solitary confinement. The long and the short of it is that Israel is nuclear armed yet has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty on the basis that it has no nuclear weaponry! And the US has let them get away with this – no wonder her neighbours are pissed off!

Vancouver’s late famous Indian actor, Dan George, advised that one walk a mile in the other person’s moccasins. Let’s do that.

Israel’s neighbourhood believes that Israel was spawned by illegal immigration when Britain had its Mandate over Palestine making all Israel land grabs illegal per se. Without in any way condoning Palestinian violence one must ask what would you do if a large chunk of your ancient homeland was occupied by foreigners based upon religion? What would you say if that country expanded its land grab by building on land occupied by you, contrary to UN resolutions and declarations? What would you say if your citizens caught inside this new, and to you illegal country, and in the land they “won” in wars, had their homes bulldozed for their settlers without compensation, What would you do if you lived on the “border” and were consistently harassed and beaten?

What would you do if this new “country” was backed in every sense of the world by the United States which supported the interlopers by declaring you were not a nation but merely an “authority”?

The Christian world is hardly unified in thought or policy – neither is the Muslim world except, in what we call the Middle East, where there is a common hatred of Israel and sympathy with Palestinians. It is into this fermenting brew Israel is going to throw in bombs and see how they work. The latest we know says that Israel will bomb the sites of nuclear development without support of the United Nations whose resolutions Israel has long ignored.

What will be the reaction of countries in the region and the major world powers? As so often is the case, Churchill’s words apply, I submit, in this connection.

“Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events”.

The Arab Spring has, I fear, been interpreted as destabilizing the region meaning that bombing Iran will be met with idle words of rage but no violence. Premier Netanyahu, a hawk’s hawk seems to be relying on this; after all, Egypt is in slow recovery if that, Libya the same, Syria no match for Israel, Iraq in disarray, and Iran without the means (at least if their arsenals are destroyed) to retaliate.

Let’s look at the dark side to this proposed act of war. Egypt has a deal with Israel but that’s been maintained by an ironclad dictatorship – will the new regime support that relationship if other neighbours support retaliation? Egypt, is scarcely stable these days and it must be remembered that the treaty Anwer Sadat negotiated with Menachem Begin came not from a love affair but from distaste for losing and the promise of regaining the Sinai Peninsula.

Syria can’t beat up on Israel one on one but has its Golan Heights under Israeli control and would welcome any opportunity to recover them. Saudi Arabia is the wild card – while controlled by an ironclad and unpopular royal family it must be remembered that the Royals are really there on sufferance of the fundamentalist (and supporter of Al Qaeda) Wahabi sect which despises Israel.

It’s little consolation that many of Israel’s neighbours are political basket cases. Countries in internal upheaval aren’t necessarily peace loving as the French Revolution demonstrated. The rest of this general region is, at best, chaotic. Let’s assume that in April the Israeli Air Force, using traditional weapons, attacks Iran. What then? Remembering Churchill’s injunction, we had certainly best bank on the worst.

Will Israel’s neighbours simply stand by and watch? If a war breaks out, what can America do, remembering that they still rely to a considerable extent on Saudi oil? Will this be seen by Iran as a good opportunity to move into Iraq, settle some old scores and further damage to US oil needs? What about the oil states on the eastern side of Arabia – it’s not about what they can do but what happens to them. Finally, can we be sure that Afghanistan, bordered by Iran and Pakistan, will just be a bystander and if Pakistan moves on Afghanistan what will India do?

If the US loses Mid-east oil, what impact will that have on Canada and the proximity of its Tar Sands to its southern neighbour? Gloomy scenarios? Perhaps. But most wars end up drawing the protagonists neighbours in and far from being unlikely here, it’s almost impossible to see an Israeli attack on Iran being ignored as their bombing of Iraq was in 1981.

Maybe Israel won’t attack but if the US draws no other lesson from this frightening situation it’s that both Democrats and Republicans must tell the Jewish Lobby that the blind eye can now see, thus the US must, with or without the UN – preferably with – force a settlement of the Israel-Palestine standoff.

 
Rafe MAIR, Former lawyer, cabinet minister and scratch golfer who went into honest work and became a broadcaster and writer on public affairs.
 

Source: http://www.strategic-culture.org
 

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