Why Obama’s support for gay marriage is a huge political gamble

The same might be true for the crucial battleground states of Virginia,
Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. In fact, of the 12 key states that will
decide the winner of the 2012 election, 10 have rejected gay marriage in
statewide elections.

The president’s self-described “evolution” on this controversial issue does
parallel an evolution that has been occurring nationally. Support for gay
marriage has risen from 27 per cent in the mid-90s to just over 50 per cent
today. The gay civil rights movement has accelerated in the wake of the Aids
epidemic and with the rise of popular openly gay celebrities such as the
comedian Ellen DeGeneres. There has been a sea change in public opinion
since the 1960s, but the nation remains deeply divided, and opponents tend
to be more motivated than supporters when it comes to time to vote.

And while 60 per cent of Americans say that the issue of gay marriage will not
affect their vote this year, according to a new Gallup poll, nearly a
quarter of independent voters say the president’s position makes them less
likely to vote for his re-election, while only 11 per cent say it will
encourage them to back him. This does not suggest the policy will be a
political success. The president even risks alienating a core element of his
base — African-American churchgoers, who overwhelmingly oppose gay marriage
on religious grounds.

The Obama campaign hopes that an outpouring of support and cash from liberals
will compensate for the political risks. The activist class on the
professional Left has long criticised the president for being too centrist
in his approach to Congress — now it has solid evidence of his leadership on
a controversial issue.

In the days since the president’s decision, his campaign has continued to
enjoy a fundraising bonanza, including a record-setting $15 million (£9.3 
million) fundraiser at his friend George Clooney’s house in Hollywood.

However, the Romney camp can sense the edge this unprecedented policy position
creates for it in swing states. Elements of the evangelical community, which
has been slow to warm to Mitt Romney’s Mormon faith, might now be more
inclined to rush to his defence. There will be associated Super PACs –
supposedly independent campaign groups – to spread the message that Obama is
dead-set on redefining the American family. It is a policy position his
opponents can use as proof for the fantasy that he is a radical president.

But Team Romney also finds itself in a double-bind — because it does do not
want to talk about social issues at this stage of the campaign. The Obama
campaign has gone from calling Romney a flip-flopper on social issues to
taking his own words from the primary that he is a “severe conservative”.

His camp would like to spend the campaign talking about the economy — the
issue it believes can help its candidate win over centrist swing voters.
Every day spent talking about social issues only compounds that negative
“severe conservative” image.

President Obama’s best hope is that this moment of political courage is
rewarded with revived respect for his leadership. Because moral leadership
from the bully pulpit matters – it can help change hearts and minds. Liberal
enthusiasm may be blind to the serious political risks this move might
create. If the president loses the Southern and Midwestern swing states he
won last time — possibly losing the White House in the process — this
decision will be an important reason why.

But it recalls a moment recounted in the new volume of Robert Caro’s biography
of Lyndon Johnson, The Passage of Power. After the assassination of John F
Kennedy, the new president was warned by advisers not to pursue a civil
rights agenda, arguing that it might be morally right but politically unwise
in advance of the 1964 election. “Well, what the hell is the presidency
for?” Johnson replied.

He won in a landslide.

John Avlon is senior columnist for Newsweek and The Daily Beast

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