When the Greeks default, the first thing you do is book that holiday

 
Mary Ellen Synon
synonblog.dailymail.co.uk
16 February 2012

You know it’s coming. Greece is going to default on its debt and pull out of the single currency. On some Friday at 5 pm — and it is going to have to be on a Friday evening, so the banks and every account in them can be frozen until Monday morning – the Athens government will announce that they are pulling their country out of the single currency and re-establishing the drachma.

But what happens next, what happens when the Greeks wake up on the Monday to find they no longer have euros but only drachmas?

Listen to the eurozone true believers and you will imagine that all that waits for Greece outside the euro is what used to wait for anyone outside the one, holy, catholic and apostolic church: an eternity at best in limbo, at worst in hell. They forecast a run on the banks, a flight of capital, border controls to stop the terrified people of Greece trying to shift cash out of the country, and a crippling legacy of international business contracts and debts which must be repaid – if ever they can be repaid – in euros. Then eternity in international limbo.

Better listen to someone in less of a euro-religious frenzy. Try Raoul Ruparel, the euro expert at the Open Europe think tank. He says Greece pulling out of the euro would be ‘a messy affair.’ Then he can list a load of mess, but in the end, ‘the new currency would devalue quickly making the economy competitive again and providing the prospect of an export-led economic recovery – an impossible hope within the eurozone.’

That’s more like it. Though I’m not going to say the true believers are entirely wrong. Yes, there will be a run on the banks once the Greeks suspect that the Friday 5 pm announcement is really going to come.

Or rather, a run on what’s left in the banks. People with money in Greece figured out many months ago that their country is bound to drop out of the euro. They have already shifted their multi-millions out of Greek banks. Much of the money went into Switzerland.

Indeed, the flood of Greek euros gushing into Zurich banks is suspected to be one of the reasons the Swiss National Bank last year had to take fierce steps to stop the rocketing value of the Swiss franc.

This is good news. It means that much of the big money of Greece is already abroad and safe from devaluation – and therefore ready to come back into Greece for investment once things under the new drachma calm down

And investment not least in the Greek tourist industry. Because the first result of the Greeks dropping out of the euro and into a new, cheaper drachma is that Greece will offer the cheapest holidays in Europe.

At the moment, any eurozone tourist arriving at the Athens airport is arriving with euros, a.k.a. the German currency, in his pocket. He will have to pay for hotels and meals in German currency.

Imagine instead he could take this German currency to the exchange bureau at Athens airport and buy some new cheap drachmas with it: holiday lotto win.

My advice is that the moment you hear Greece has dropped out of the euro, book your ticket to a Greek island. The Greek tourist industry will boom once the country is out of the euro.

Read more: When the Greeks default, the first thing you do is book that holiday
 

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