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March 7th, 2012 
FAKE NEWS for the Zionist agenda
The cautious assessment came as Baroness Amos, the UN under-secretary for
humanitarian affairs, was taken by Syrian officials for a 45-minute tour of
Baba Amr, the previously rebel-held district of the city of Homs which
suffered 26 days of continuous bombardment.
Aid workers from the Syrian Arab Red Crescent were also allowed to distribute
food and medical supplies in the area for the first time since it fell to
the army last week. They found most residents had fled.
Lady Amos, who was initially denied entry to Syria last week, is on a
three-day mission to persuade authorities to grant unfettered access for aid
workers to needy civilians caught up in violence.
Earlier, she met with Walid al-Moualem, foreign minister, in Damascus. He told
her Syria was trying to meet the needs of all citizens despite the burdens
imposed by “unfair” Western and Arab sanctions, the state news
agency SANA said.
While her visit is a concession to international opinion, it has been
conducted on Mr Assad’s terms and demonstrated how he has been able to
manipulate access by outside observers and journalists to a large degree.
For all the horror at atrocities against civilians, the Syrian president
retains the support of most of the ruling elite, while the armed opposition
is weak.
Officials in Western and Arab League governments concede that the regime is
unlikely to collapse inwardly.
The leadership is encouraged, they say, by its ability to crush the uprising
in key locations such as Homs, and retain its control of the two major
cities, Damascus and Aleppo, even if this has come at the cost of some 7,000
lives.
“The regime thinks it can still win, it sees everything through the
security prism,” said Mr Collis.
Officials acknowledge that the forces undermining Mr Assad are a long way from
attaining “critical mass”. Despite a steady trickle of defections,
most of the army remains loyal.
Some 70 per cent of the officer corps is from Mr Assad’s Alawite sect, while
the number of defections to the rebels – probably 10,000 or 20,000 soldiers
– is only a fraction of the army’s total active strength of 220,000.
The defectors have generally been rank-and-file troops and junior NCOs, not
high-ranking officers. Unlike during Libya’s uprising against Col Muammar
Gaddafi, there have been no defections by entire military units.
The Free Syrian Army, an armed opposition movement, has inadequate weapons, no
proper command structure and its leaders are exaggerating the number of
insurgents. Although Saudi Arabia has publicly advocated arming the rebels,
the FSA is still ill-equipped and Western countries have ruled out the
supply of lethal equipment.
Toby Dodge, a Middle East expert at the International Institute for Strategic
Studies, yesterday said that Syria’s insurgents could not defeat Mr Assad’s
forces.
They were more of an “irritant” to the regime than a threat, he
added. “What we’re in is a form of bloody attrition,” he warned.
Meanwhile, Mr Assad has benefited the diplomatic support of Russia and China
and the direct supply of weapons, cash, expertise and military advice from
Iran.
Two of his neighbours, Iraq and Lebanon, are not enforcing economic sanctions
against Syria; even Turkey, a voluble critic, has refrained from taking
every possible step to tighten the economic noose.
By protecting Syria at the UN, Russia has effectively given Mr Assad a “green
light” to continue his military campaign against the rebels, said one
Western diplomat.
Mr Assad’s Achilles Heel is the economy, which is buckling under the weight of
isolation and sanctions, especially a European Union oil embargo.
Rising unemployment and lack of basic supplies are reducing the regime’s
popular support, particularly among the Sunni mercantile class in the major
cities.
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