Want cheap food? Don’t let the climate change

Tuck in now, everyone. The era of cheap food may come to an end within decades, thanks to the depredations of climate change.

US consumers face rising food prices in the next few months, because a drought in the Midwest has pushed up the cost of corn. But that is just a taste of things to come. A new report suggests that by 2050 many UK consumers will be unable to afford current staples like meat, – and the same pressures will apply globally.

Farmers around the world will face two challenges, both of which will drive up food prices, according to the report – What’s Cooking? Adaptation mitigation in the UK food system. They will have to cut their own greenhouse gas emissions and at the same time cope with the consequences of the climate change that does occur such as more extreme weather events.

These two pressures will play out around the world, but the effect on the cost of food production may well differ from country to country, says Mirjam Röder at the University of Manchester, UK, who is one of the authors of the report. Other countries may rely less on imported food, or have more resources to help them adapt their food production infrastructure.

The report, which is based on Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change scenarios for the 21st century, suggests that rising prices may force UK consumers to cut their consumption of meat and dairy products by as much as 80 per cent by 2050. Cereal consumption could also fall 20 per cent.

However, governments may act before prices rise too sharply, says Andy Challinor at the University of Leeds, UK. If farming policies designed to tackle climate change drive up the cost of food enough to cause shortages in rich countries, governments might well abandon policies to cut agricultural emissions.


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The Green Industry Has Already Raised Prices

Sun Jul 08 15:27:53 BST 2012 by Tom Andersen

The wasteful production of ethanol to ‘save the planet’ has already raised the price of corn by half. Not due to climate change, then but to ‘Green policy’. One thing we could do to mitigate increasing food prices is to stop growing it to feed our cars.

Also the report seems to be written by someone without maths skills. The retail price of food in a place like the UK is only marginally connected to how much the raw materials cost. Most food cost is in marketing, packaging and manufacturing. A $5 box of cereal has $0.30 worth of corn or wheat in it.

The Green Industry Has Already Raised Prices

Mon Jul 09 03:34:03 BST 2012 by Dann

Climate change may well increase the cost of food though – if only due to companies using it as a convenient scapegoat for raising prices themselves. One company here in Australia has already been caught trying that approach. Who knows how many others will follow suit, but manage not to get caught?

(long URL – click here)

The Green Industry Has Already Raised Prices

Mon Jul 09 10:21:28 BST 2012 by David E

The idea that a change in weather patterns must necessarily lead to a reduction in plant yields seems very hard to sustain.

For example, irrigation in dry areas mimics the effect of increased rainfall, which leads to higher plant yields.

Similarly, farmers in temperate zones refer to the number of ‘growing days’ in the year as the number of days where the temperature is above zero. It follows that increasing temperatures (in winter in particular) tend to increase plant yields.

The question therefore is, what type of weather changes do we foresee?

Or perhaps more pertinently, CAN we foresee weather changes over a time period greater than, say, a week?

I suspect any attempt to do that constitutes hubris.

The Green Industry Has Already Raised Prices

Mon Jul 09 19:25:45 BST 2012 by TwoZeroOZ

The first thing you must educate yourself on – before taking on the great task of attempting to understand climate change – is the differences between climate and weather.

The Green Industry Has Already Raised Prices

Mon Jul 09 21:43:12 BST 2012 by Matthew Gaylard

hmmm … interestingly, recent research suggests that while elevated levels of CO2 promote crop growth, they also reduce nutritional value.

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