US Marines urinating video comes at singularly sensitive moment for Afghanistan

Superficially, the Taliban has little reason to negotiate: it knows that
America will withdraw most of its troops by 2014, so it could choose simply
to wait for that moment, and renew its offensive when the last US combat
unit departs.

The reality, however, is more complex. Hundreds of Taliban prisoners are being
held in Afghanistan – and the movement’s leadership wants them released.

Moreover, regular raids by US special forces have decimated the upper and
middle ranks of the insurgents. By one calculation, the life expectancy of a
Taliban commander in the field is measured in weeks and the average age of
midlevel guerrilla leader is only 25.

All this has placed the extremists under significant pressure, giving them a
reason to talk. At the same time, however, the raids have fractured the
Taliban, helping to break up the insurgency and make it leaderless in many
areas. The risk is that America may end up negotiating with adversaries who
lack the power to implement an agreement, even if one could be reached.

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