US election: Job figures are bad news for America

In sign of the lack of concrete ideas, a top Romney economics adviser, Glenn
Hubbard, recently argued that merely “clarifying policy” on tax
and regulation, will have a stimulus effect. That may possibly be true, but
it is hardly a platform for popular election.

At the same time as finding his own voice, Mr Romney must also hope popular
economic sentiment turns against Mr Obama.

Strip out political hyperbole, and the new jobs numbers were not “devastating”
– jobs are still growing, as are car sales – but they were undeniably a “worrying”
sign that the US economy is now hitting stall speeds.

It is true that no incumbent president of modern times has been elected with
unemployment at current levels, but it also true that what matters more is
the direction of travel. Reagan was re-elected with high 7.2 per cent
unemployment in 1984, but crucially the numbers had been falling in the
run-up to that election.

Until this month Mr Obama has plausibly been able to argue that life, while
still tough, has been improving for the average American worker – but with
alarm bells now sounding, that is going to be an increasingly difficult case
to make.

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