“The evidence is mounting that Syria has become a magnet for Sunni extremists, including those operating under the banner of al-Qaeda,” a New York Times report has stated.
The growing al-Qaeda presence seems to disturb neither Washington, nor its allies in their decision to send communication gear, military intelligence, and arms to the armed groups in Syria.
The support for al-Qaeda and other terror cells in Syria is feared to throw the militants into power and give them a staunch stronghold if the US-led campaign managed to finally topple the Assad government.
Press TV has conducted an interview with Patrick Seale, Middle East expert from Cannes, to further discuss the issue. The following is a rough transcription of the interview.
Press TV: We have German intelligence that is saying al-Qaeda is all over Syria, around 90 terror attacks that can be attributed to al-Qaeda and that can be attributed between the end of December and the beginning of July. That’s almost, what, seven months there. It’s called US-proxy al-Qaeda death squads in Syria. Your reaction.
Seale: There’s no doubt that the conflict has widened and that the local Islamist Muslim Brothers have got lots of allies from outside — the jihadis, as you’ve mentioned, or Salafists, armed Islamists coming in mainly from Iraq but also from Lebanon, some from Jordan and some, as you say, from further afield.
This, of course, the hallmark of these people is suicide bombings and there’ve been quite a few of those whether the figure quoted by the German intelligence is correct or not.
In any event, there are quite a lot of them and they have in a way changed the nature of this conflict because, as well as your other guest said a moment ago, it puts the United States and its allies in a rather embarrassing situation. They’re fighting al-Qaeda in many, many countries and here they seem to be on the same side of it.
I think they’re quite well aware of the difficulty of that position and so they’re trying to filter the weapons, funds and intelligence they’re sending in, and they’re trying not to send them to these jihadi groups.
But that, of course, is very, very difficult because there are about 100 of these armed groups – it’s very difficult to say – which are Islamists, which are not, which are simply armed peasants or unemployed Jews or which are the Salafist fighters? It does put the West in a very, very difficult position.
What I think we’re increasingly seeing is the internal crisis in Syria is overshadowed, as you’ve mentioned I think, overshadowed by this regional conflict, a sort of mini-Cold War between the United States and its allies on the one hand, and Russia, China and Iran on the other who, of course, are trying to protect the Syrian regime which they feel is facing an internal conspiracy.
Press TV: Let’s expand more about Turkey here. Turkey’s president, Erdogan, came out with a warning and said that he may take action against the Kurdish rebels operating in the north of Syria. Do you think that this is going to lead to perhaps a Turkish and NATO intervention in Syria?
Seale: I personally don’t think so. There really isn’t any appetite either in Turkey or in any of the Western countries — certainly not in the United States — to get physically involved in the conflict inside Syria, with boots on the ground. Nobody wants that.
What they’re trying to do is beef up the rebels, beef up the Free Syrian Army, so-called, with of course all these jihadis attached to it. As I said earlier, this puts them in a rather embarrassing situation.
There’s no doubt that the final goal, the objective is to bring down the whole so-called resistance axis of Iran, Syria and Hezbollah. What the United States would really like to do is to bring down the two regimes in Tehran and Damascus.
And this, of course, is what the Israelis are pushing them to do. Just as they pushed them to destroy Iraq, so they would like to push them to destroy Iran.
Of course, if they can bring down the Syrian regime first, they feel this would sever Iran’s links with…the Palestinians, with Hezbollah in particular.
The Israelis have tried to destroy Hezbollah in 2006. They tried to destroy Hamas in 2008 and 9; yet, they failed on both accounts. Now they see a chance to bring down that whole axis but without actually getting involved themselves. This is the paradox.
That’s why they’re trying to strengthen the rebels, providing them with intelligence, with communications equipment, with weapons, trying to get them more organized than they have been in the past because the feature of the present situation is of course the great … in the opposition.
One of your speakers a moment ago mentioned Basma Qadmani. Of course she is a million miles away from the Salafists. She’s a completely different personality. Her aims are different. But of course her organization, the Syrian National Council, has provided cover for these rather more violent elements. And this is her dilemma as well.
The fundamentals of the situation have not really changed in my view. First of all, I think the regime retains the political supremacy in a way. The military balance of power is still very much in the regime’s favor.
Secondly, Syria continues to enjoy the protection of Russia and China at the Security Council.
Thirdly, as I said, there’s no appetite anywhere in the West after these many wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, with economic cuts, with troop cuts in countries like Britain and France; there’s no appetite for intervention.
Fourthly, of course, the opposition, as I say, is divided. They haven’t united behind a single leader. They haven’t provided a clear political program, and they are being overshadowed by the Muslim Brothers in Syria which is the strongest element in the opposition together with these Salafi allies of it.
This is a rather difficult situation in which the opponents of the Syrian regime and of Iran find themselves.
Press TV: Talk about the media, Patrick Seale, we know there’s been a media war. We know there have been false facts coming from different organizations, media-wise, whether it’s the BBC and, of course, Al-Arabiya and Al-Jazeera.
Tell us what scenario is going to unfold because time is not on the side of all these countries that are involved. Some are saying that this battle in Aleppo is going to be a huge turning point but that’s what was said about Damascus. If the fighters on the ground lose that battle and get flushed out, what’s going to happen next?
Seale: Before I answer your question, I should say that I think we have to be a bit careful with conspiracy theories and the whole idea that the Israelis did 9/11, that al-Qaeda is really run by Western intelligence services. I think that needs a little bit more nuance.
You see, there’s no question that, when the United States with its nuclear allies mobilized tens of thousands of young Arabs to fight the Russian Soviets in Afghanistan, that was really what started this whole phenomenon because when the Russians pulled out of Afghanistan in ’89, the Americans then simply then dropped the Mujahedin, these fighters who they had mobilized, trained and armed.
Of course this created a large group of young men who couldn’t go home and couldn’t bear that their home country didn’t want them, and they created mayhem. In fact, people started calling them Afghan-Arabs. Of course, Osama bin Laden mobilized some of them and that’s how the organization started.
Of course, it had a grievance against Saudi Arabia because Saudi Arabia gave a home to half a million Americans to kick Iraq out of Kuwait. It had a grievance against America for dropping them and of course it’s been at war really with the United States every since. I think it may be a little bit far-fetched to say it’s purely a creature today of Western intelligence services. I don’t agree with that.
Now, the battle on the ground in Syria, the regime has more or less won the battle in Damascus. The front has now shifted to Aleppo.
Of course, a conventional army such as Syria’s, Syria’s got a large, conventional army trained to actually fight Israel. It doesn’t have an easy time fighting an urban guerrilla war.
But it’s now mobilizing those troops, sending reinforcements there using heavy weapons including its air force, and I think that there’s no doubt that in a few days it’ll manage to crush those pockets of rebellion.
I think one has to note the two respective strategies. On the one hand, the regime’s strategy is to try and eliminate and crush any pockets of armed rebellion on Syrian soil — even when they hole up in residential areas, then they use their heavy weapons against them…
GMA/HJL
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