US aid for security budget will be cut, Afghans warned

He also said the current level of Afghan army and police was only a termporary “surge”
to deal with the insurgency. “We are in the middle of an insurgency, do
you need that kind of force, could you do with less? Hopefully the security
situation in two or three years will be different.”

It is understood Afghan forces could shrink by a third to 250,000.

Leading Afghan analysts have warned of the dangers of a rapid reduction in
Western support. “Afghan forces are not self-sufficient yet,” said
Abdul Hadi Khalid, Afghanistan’s former interior minister and a military
analyst. “They still need more training, more equipment and they need
to be stronger.”

If funding becomes severely depleted the country could sink back into the
civil war. When the Russians pulled out of Afghanistan in 1989, they
continued financing its government and forces for another three years. When
the money stopped, the country was almost instantly consumed by conflict.

Brig Ben Barry, a senior fellow at the Institute of Strategic Studies, said: “If
the political and security situation of Afghanistan after 2015 requires
Afghan security forces that cannot be afforded, that is going to be a major
risk.”

Washington currently spends $130 billion a year in Afghanistan and each US
soldier costs $1 million a year.

The Afghan government is expected to require about $7 billion a year in
outside help and will not be able to pay for its own military for years.

President Barack Obama will host a Nato summit in Chicago in May to discuss
troop numbers and financing.

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