UN set to vote on Syria resolution

Sources close to the negotiations said that a main stumbling block for the
Russians had been a paragraph that called for the UN to reconvene on Syria
21 days after the resolution was passed to discuss “further measures”
if President Bashar al-Assad failed to comply with demands to end violence.

The word “measures” is taken to mean sanctions, and the Russians
wanted it either replaced with something like “steps” or removed
altogether.

Western powers, backed by the Arab League, are keen to gain Russia’s support
for even for a diluted resolution because Moscow’s support remains key to
the survival of the government.

“It would scare the Assad regime a lot more than a more robust text
vetoed by Russians,” said a Western official. “It would mean the
Russians are slowly accepting the idea that Assad will depart and would also
send a powerful message to people around Assad that it might be time to
leave the sinking ship.”

After the poor reception to the latest draft agreed on Thursday, Hillary
Clinton, the US Secretary of State, spoke with her Russian counterpart,
Sergey Lavrov, and agreed to further discussions yesterday.

The swift conclusion of those talks, and the timetabling of a vote at the UN
at 0900 New York time may suggest that an agreement had been found.

Moscow clings to Damascus because of a lucrative arms sales contract and a
naval support base at Tartus on the Mediterranean.

Vladimir Putin, who is likely to be returned to the presidency by elections in
March, after eight years as prime minister, is also concerned about bowing
to Western demands.

The initial text under consideration by the UN Security Council, where Russia
holds the power of veto, had condemned the bloodshed in Syria and “fully
supports” an Arab League plan to facilitate a democratic transition. A
section calling on him to transfer power to his deputy has already been
removed and it makes no mention of Mr Assad departing.

Syrian security forces yesterday continued their bloody repression of the
11-month uprising, which has claimed at least 6,000 lives.

Deadly clashes erupted between troops and armed rebels in suburbs of the
Syrian capital and villages in the south, killing at least 20 people,
including nine soldiers, activists said.

The Syrian Human Rights Observatory said protests were held across the country
to commemorate the Hama massacre 30 years ago.

The assault was ordered by Mr Assad’s father and predecessor Hafez Assad,
following an armed rebellion by the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood group in the
city. Thousands were killed though a precise figure has never been
established.

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