UK trade data raise recession fears

According to figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK’s goods trade deficit, which is the difference between imports and exports, hit £10.1bn in April.

It was the biggest shortfall for nearly seven years, meaning that Britain is importing more goods than it is exporting, compared to forecasts of a deficit of £8.7bn in March.

Trade deteriorated with the EU, Britain’s biggest market, with exports falling 6.8% and imports declining by 3%. In addition, sales to non-EU countries plunged 10.3%, while imports from those countries slipped back by 1.9%.

“In broad terms, the numbers look disastrous. There is a fall-off in exports to EU and non-EU countries. That ties in with the evidence that there has been a downturn in the global manufacturing cycle, and the UK is not immune to it,” said David Tinsley, an economist at BNP Paribas.

“These figures further dash any hopes that exports might pull the UK out of recession,” said Martin Beck, UK economist at Capital Economics.

Britain’s Treasury has announced plans for boosting the economy by encouraging banks to increase lending to trade and individuals. Under the “funding for lending” scheme, British banks would have access to cheap multiyear loans. Furthermore, the Bank of England has introduced plans for injecting a minimum of £5 billion a month into the country’s financial system.

Casting doubts upon UK Treasury’s emergency measures, Vicky Redwood, at Capital Economics, said, “Given the risky environment, banks may simply not want to lend more, even with the carrot of cheaper funding. And there is no guarantee that firms and households will want to borrow.”

SSM/HE

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