Turkey risks walking off the Nato tightrope

As expected, the reaction from other Nato members has been negative, with many
allies urging Turkey to withdraw its veto over an Israeli presence in
Chicago. The danger is that by misusing the Nato platform to push a narrow,
self-interested agenda, Turkey risks progress on issues where it could still
find some sympathy, such as support for its policy towards Syria or its
regional peace-brokering efforts.

The second, and more controversial, call for the OIC to be part of the summit
is a further example. Arguing that the OIC (itself now led by a Turk) has as
much right to attend as the EU might make sense based on their co-operation
with Nato operations in Libya and Afghanistan, and their obvious centrality
to the Middle East. However, the manner in which Turkey has argued its case
no doubt undermines their cause. After all, Israel co-operates heavily with
the United States, is responsible for up to 25 per cent of NATO’S budget,
and could make the same claim. By this logic, both of them could attend, or
neither of them – but arguably not either one alone.

Furthermore, tying in a well-known disapproval of Cyprus’ EU membership with
this issue is not a sensible way for Turkey to be taken seriously. The
cement has long hardened on Cypriot EU membership, now in its eighth year,
and repeated attempts to jump-start negotiations between the northern and
southern parts of the island have failed. Two weeks ago, UN representative
Alexander Downer said, “If the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders
cannot agree with each other on a model for a united Cyprus, then the United
Nations cannot make them.” Why then would Nato have any more influence on
this conflict?

The UK government has long recognised Turkey’s vital role in the region.
Turkey is both a transit route for energy from the Middle East and Asia, and
a crucial geopolitical counterbalance to Russian and Iranian aspirations to
control the energy resources of the Caucasus and Caspian. But while it is an
important partner in the Nato alliance, Turkey is not indispensable. If
Turkey’s actions lead it to be seen as a source of instability for Nato,
then the alliance may well find a way to reconsider the country’s
membership. Turkey needs to find a way to air its grievances without
undermining the very military alliance which has lent the country the
international clout it is now flaunting. With so many unresolved issues
regionally and globally, Turkey needs Nato as much as the other way around.

Despite all the progress, then, there clearly remains a long way to walk along
the tightrope between Turkish aspirations and reality, regarding Nato and
elsewhere. Why risk falling off?

Muddassar Ahmed is a Nato Young Atlantacist Fellow

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