The annual rate of inflation shrank to its slowest pace in 13 years in the 12 months to June, an achievement Treasurer Wayne Swan described as “remarkable” given the impressive rate of growth in the economy.
But economists doubt that an annual consumer price index (CPI) rate of 1.2 per cent, and benign readings of underlying inflation measures, will be enough on their own to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut the cash rate again at its board meeting on August 7.
The annual CPI rate stands well below the central bank’s two to three per cent target band after growing by just 0.5 per cent in the June quarter.
Mr Swan said Australia’s economic fundamentals were “rock solid” with contained inflation, lower interest rates and low unemployment.
“That is a remarkable trifecta for Australia,” Mr Swan told reporters in Sydney on Wednesday.
“Contained inflation is also a dividend of the government’s fiscal discipline, and has been vital to the recent interest rate cuts from the RBA.”
But shadow treasurer Joe Hockey said this was not a time for Mr Swan to be patting himself on the back with many of the goods and services people need, as opposed to want, continuing to increase in price.
“The prices for these essential goods and services, such as electricity, education, health care and rents, have risen significantly since Labor came to power,” Mr Hockey said in a statement.
Mr Hockey said electricity prices were up by 10.7 per cent over the past year and more than 60 per cent higher since Labor came to power in late 2007.
“This is before the carbon tax, which will hit electricity prices starting from next quarter’s data,” he said.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said the most significant price rises in the June quarter were the cost of medical and hospital services (up by 2.8 per cent), rents (1.1 per cent), vegetables (5.2 per cent) and furniture (4.5 per cent).
These rises were partially offset by falls in domestic holiday travel and accommodation (down by four per cent), audio, visual and computing equipment (3.8 per cent) and cake and biscuit prices (2.9 per cent).
Stripping out volatile price changes, as the RBA does when considering interest rate policy, underlying inflation measures was equally benign at a nine-year low.
On average they grew by 0.6 per cent in the quarter, which saw their annual rate down at 1.95 per cent, from 2.15 per cent previously.
This was the lowest average annual rate since these measures – the trimmed mean and weighted median – were introduced in June 2003.
RBC Capital Markets head of strategy Su-Lin Ong said well-behaved inflation did not strengthen the case for an August rate cut on its own.
“Unless global stress and credit markets deteriorate further, the RBA may well elect to stay on the sidelines in August,” Ms Ong said, adding that the latest RBA commentary hinted at a reasonably high bar for near-term policy action.
RBA governor Glenn Stevens told a conference on Tuesday that current rate settings were “about right for the circumstances we face”.
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