South Sudan choosing the ‘path of war’

“Taking Heglig was the first time that the South’s forces have stepped onto
Sudanese territory, and that is a major escalation,” said John Ashworth, a
regional analyst based in Kenya’s capital, Nairobi.

“For Khartoum then to bomb Bentiu, which is nowhere near the border, that
again is a major escalation. No one can be 100 per cent sure whether this is
a return to full war, or military brinkmanship to force better negotiating
positions when it all calms down again.”

Britain and America sympathised with the South during the long civil war and
were quick to recognise its independence. Both were unusually blunt in
condemning South Sudan’s incursion into its neighbour and the capture of
Heglig.

Henry Bellingham, the Foreign Office minister responsible for Africa, called
this “completely unacceptable” and urged “both sides to establish a
ceasefire and withdraw all forces immediately from one another’s territory”.
Mr Bellingham added: “Neither government should expect to receive support or
understanding from the international community if they deliberately lead
their country down this path.”

But President Salva Kiir of South Sudan defied international pressure on
Thursday, saying that he would not order his troops out of Heglig or the
surrounding area, which he claims as the South’s territory.

“Last night I never slept because of the telephone calls,” he said. “Those who
have been calling me, starting with the UN secretary-general yesterday, he
gave me an order that I’m ordering you to immediately withdraw from Heglig.
I said ‘I’m not under your command’.”

Later however, South Sudan indicated that it would withdraw from Heglig in
return for its neighbour relinquishing other disputed territory.

When South Sudan seceded last year, the new country took with it some 75 per
cent of the oil reserves belonging to the old Sudan. But the pipeline
through which the oil is exported runs through the North to the Red Sea.

The two neighbours have never agreed on how to share the oil or the revenues.
In January, South Sudan stopped exporting its oil after accusing Khartoum of
imposing unfair transit fees. In the process, Mr Kiir’s government also
deprived itself of some 98 per cent of its own revenue.

That makes it almost impossible for either South Sudan or Khartoum to sustain
military campaigns. One expert judged that it was “completely unfeasible”
for either side to be able to “fight for more than a few weeks”

But the recent clashes have already caused about 100,000 people to flee their
homes. Sudan cannot tolerate the loss of Heglig oilfield, making retaliation
all but inevitable.

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