Palin is just what Romney needs

The vice-presidential choice is also the candidate’s only chance to make up
for what he lacks, whether it is youth, experience or a wider geographical
appeal. George W Bush chose Dick Cheney in 2000 because he seemed older and
wiser, and because he knew about foreign policy. Barack Obama chose Joe
Biden in 2008 for precisely the same reasons. John Kerry, a northerner,
chose John Edwards, a southerner, in 2004 in order to shake off some of the
New England stereotypes that haunted him, just as John F Kennedy of
Massachusetts chose Lyndon B Johnson of Texas in 1960.

Republican candidates in particular make their vice-presidential choices with
an eye to ideological balance as well. Moderate Republicans often choose
vice-presidents to their Right, in order to keep that wing of their party
happy. Thus the moderate Bob Dole named fiscal conservative Jack Kemp in
1996, and the moderate George Bush chose the more conservative Dan Quayle in
1988. By contrast, the conservative Ronald Reagan picked the moderate George
Bush in 1980, in the hope of attracting more centrist votes. John McCain’s
gamble in 2008 was partly an attempt to do both: he hoped Palin would
attract the Christian conservatives to his Right, while also appealing to
moderate women to his Left.

Some refuse to play by these rules. Bill Clinton picked Al Gore in 1992,
despite the fact that they were the same age, had the same politics, and
came from more or less the same part of the country. But that decision sent
a message about Clinton, too: he was so self-confident and so sure of
victory that he didn’t feel the need to make up for any deficits.

Romney’s campaign knows all of these precedents, and his advisers will be
debating them in the coming weeks. But what is it, exactly, that his
candidacy needs? Certainly it isn’t a wider geographical appeal. As a former
governor of Massachusetts, he has strong ties to the East Coast; as a
Mormon, he has strong ties to Utah and the West, which is where most Mormons
live; as the son of a former Michigan governor who grew up in Detroit, he
has equally strong ties to the Midwest, too.

Nor does Romney need executive experience. As an ex-governor and
multi-millionaire ex-CEO of Bain and Co, he’s got it, at least on paper. For
that matter, the Republican ticket doesn’t even need ideological balance,
because Romney has taken every conceivable position on every issue – for and
against abortion, for and against universal health care – so much so that
it’s impossible to know whether to characterise him as a conservative or a
liberal.

What Romney really lacks is charisma, and what he really needs is someone to
help him win back the votes of women who were scared away by a Republican
primary campaign that debated, among other things, the merits of
contraception. What Romney really needs, in other words, is a talented,
unknown female running mate who will bring a touch of youth and charisma to
his stodgy campaign. Thanks to Sarah Palin, that is exactly the kind of
politician he will go out of his way to avoid.

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