The latest crisis also troubles Washington, which wants smooth ties between
civilian and military leaders so that Pakistan can help efforts to stabilise
neighbouring Afghanistan, a top priority for President Barack Obama.
Some coalition partners of the ruling Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) warned
that Mr Zardari and his allies should not push the military too hard,
fearing further upheaval in the South Asian nation facing a Taliban
insurgency of its own.
“We will support any such resolution as it will be a move to strengthen
democracy in the country, but it will be difficult for us to support any
resolution which targets any state institution,” said a member of parliament
from a major coalition ally of the PPP.
Mr Gilani was similarly cautious.
“The resolution we mentioned, its purpose is absolutely not that we are
against any institution,” he told parliament in a speech televised live. “It
absolutely does not mean we are bringing this against the military.”
Mr Gilani’s office is denying a report today that the prime minister this week
called the British High Commissioner in Islamabad, expressing concerns that
the army might be about to mount a coup, and asking for London to support
the government.
An official at the British High Commission in Islamabad also denied the
report.
Mr Zardari, however, may take more risks.
The president, close aides say, wants to be remembered as the leader who
worked harder than any other to promote civilian rule in Pakistan and loosen
the military’s hold on power.
“He is stubborn and headstrong, with a strong sense of street politics,” a
senior PPP member told Reuters.
“And he has a desire for a legacy as the man who finally got the ballot box to
prevail.”
No civilian government has ever served out its full five-year term in
Pakistan. Pakistan’s next general election is due by 2013. Legislators will
elect a new president, a largely ceremonial post, after that ballot.
Mr Zardari, who wields considerable influence as the head of the ruling party,
also may have concluded the military will not have the stomach for another
coup.
“They (Zardari and his allies) are on the offensive, because they think they
have the upper hand,” Rifaat Hussain, a professor at the Quaid-e-Azam
University in Islamabad.
Military sources say that, while they would like Mr Zardari to go, it should
be through constitutional means, not another overthrow that would tarnish
Pakistan’s democracy further.
While analysts say the military would be capable of pulling off a coup,
several factors prevent it from doing so.
The army’s image was badly damaged by the unilateral US raid that killed
al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in Pakistan in May last year.
The discovery that bin Laden may have been living for years in a Pakistani
town not far from intelligence headquarters in the capital infuriated US
officials, hurting the military’s position with their traditional American
backers.
And few generals want to repeat the mistakes made by Pakistan’s last military
ruler, Pervez Musharraf, who resigned as president in disgrace in 2008 to
avoid impeachment for violating the constitution.
The military sets foreign and security policy, even when civilians are in
power, so it needs a major reason, such as a threat to its fundamental
interests, to justify a coup.
The military is also reluctant to take power and assume responsibility for a
host of problems such as a weak economy, widespread poverty and power
shortages that would open it up to public criticism.
That doesn’t mean Mr Zardari is safe.
Aware of their limitations, Pakistan’s generals seem to have pinned their
hopes on the Supreme Court to pull the rug from under the president, who
they see as corrupt and inept.
The Supreme Court has set up a commission to investigate “memogate”. If a link
is established with Zardari, he could face impeachment proceedings.
The Court has also threatened to go after the government if it does not act on
corruption cases against Zardari.
“The military has decided not to act, because the government is already in
trouble with the Supreme Court, which could disqualify senior government
officials,” said Rasul Bakhsh Rais, a professor of political science at the
Lahore University of Management Sciences.
“It is quite prudent on the part of the military.”
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