‘Painful oil halt UK’s own fault’

“Iran has implemented the oil embargo in response to the European Union oil ban [on Iranian exports] and reciprocal action is an international norm,” said Ala’eddin Boroujerdi who chairs Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission.

Immediately after Iran’s announcement, Brent crude, which is used to price two thirds of the world’s internationally traded crude oil supplies, jumped to $121.5 a barrel not seen since mid-June last year.

Following the hike, Ken Hasegawa, a Tokyo-based commodity sales manager at Newedge Japan said the rise “is supply related.”

While the British government has avoided commenting on the issue, analysts believe it is the crisis-hit British firms and the public who pay for the mistakes of their government along with its EU allies that prompted Iran into retaliation.

British media had earlier tried to downplay the impact of an Iranian oil ban after safeguards that the British and other EU officials had reportedly received from Saudi Arabia that it will allocate its spare capacity to supply the void and Iranian oil flow halt will cause.

However, a look at Britain’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) report, before the media propaganda on a risk-free oil embargo began, reveals the real impact of Iran’s ban on the ailing British economy.

Stephen Nickell from OBr’s main steering committee warned in March 2011 that oil prices and the related inflation rate are the biggest threats to British economic recovery in the coming years.

“[The risk is that] oil prices just go on going up” Nickell said.

Yet, his warning came when the OBR predicted the oil prices to peak at $113 in 2011 and to remain at around $107 through to end of 2015.

Unfortunately for Britain, the safeguards they received from Saudi Arabia seem not working as expected as the kingdom has failed to compensate for the supply loss from Iran, South Sudan, Yemen and Syria despite tapping into its spare production capacity.

The result has been serious market worries, as prices continue to soar above the worst scenario expectations of the British officials, despite the fact that the spare production capacity is nearly eroded.

Higher oil prices also have implicit consequences for the British government.

The British transport sector workers, including Lincolnshire tanker drivers, have already launched several rounds of strikes over fuel price hikes in line with fuel tax rises including.

The government could be forced to squeeze its fuel tax income to keep the prices stable in case of further oil price spikes and in a bid to avoid further strike actions, but that means losing a major part of public sector income in a crisis-hit economy.

AMR/

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