Obama vs Romney: let’s focus on the negatives

Flash forward four years to 2004. We were now the incumbent, responsible for
difficult and dangerous conflicts overseas and a troubled economy at home.
So, the strategic challenge was just the opposite and we had to argue: “Things
are really screwed up so let’s stay the course.”

As we looked at the race, we realised that less than 50 per cent of the
country liked George W Bush or his policies. So how do you get to 50 per
cent plus one? Well, you pray the other guy is less likeable and that his
weaknesses reflect your strengths – which is exactly what we got with John
Kerry.

Obama’s strategists understand the parallels. And so they launched his
campaign timed neatly to the anniversary of Osama Bin Laden’s death with ads
and the not-so-subtle suggestion that Mitt Romney would not have made the
same decision.

Ironically, Republicans were apoplectic and accused Obama of brazen political
opportunism. Ironically, because that’s exactly what Democrats said when
Bush launched his own re-election with ads that referred to 9/11. Democrats
protested wildly, which of course, we loved because it just brought more
attention to the ads and our message.

It was a trap the Democrats walked right into, and now eight years later,
Republicans have just done precisely the same thing. By arguing about the
correctness of trumpeting bin Laden’s death and Obama’s role in it,
Republicans just ensured more attention was paid to an issue which is
nothing but a winner for Obama.

And Obama didn’t even genuflect in the direction of the traditional positive
nature of a campaign launch by waiting a couple of weeks before throwing
punches. They know what they need to do and didn’t waste any time going
negative against Romney, with ads raising the issue of his Swiss bank
accounts. Like Bush in 2004, Obama wants the election to be a choice between
two candidates and not a referendum on himself.

Romney has significant gaps among key electoral blocks, including and
especially women and Hispanics. George W Bush needed every hispanic vote he
got to win the presidency, and he won with 41 and 44 per cent of their vote
in 2000 and 2004 respectively. In recent polling, Romney only managed a 14
per cent share of this same group.

But neither can Obama count on the Messiah-like enthusiasm he generated four
years ago, particularly among younger voters who have grown older and more
experienced. Polling by the Harvard Institute of Politics, which has been
tracking attitudes of young Americans, suggests that “Millennials”
– those voters, aged 18 to 29, who reached adulthood this century – are
dramatically less enthusiastic and politically engaged than they were in
2008.

And while Obama won independent voters by 52 per cent to 44 per cent in 2008,
today independents favour Romney over Obama by 48 to 42 per cent.

So, with Newt Gingrich’s announcement last week that he’s officially out of
the race, Romney is the official nominee of the Republican party. And
yesterday President Obama officially launched his re-election campaign with
rallies in Ohio and Virginia.

The game is on. But neither side is particularly excited and the way things
are headed, it could be as dreary as a foul-ridden, goalless football match
that is decided only by a penalty shoot-out after extra time.

Mark McKinnon, a former Republican strategist who worked on the campaigns
of George W Bush and John McCain, is Global Vice Chair of Hill+Knowlton
Strategies

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