Even coming second would put him in a strong position to emerge as the
conservative alternative to the moderate Romney and effectively narrow the
contest to a two-horse race.
Rick Perry, the Texas governor, dropped out on Thursday and immediately
endorsed Gingrich, a kindred spirit. After coming behind a comedian in one
opinion poll, Jon Huntsman, the former Utah governor, fell by the wayside
the day before.
Gingrich’s greatest rival for the conservative mantle is Rick Santorum, a
former Pennsylvania senator who lacks the former House Speaker’s clout and
penchant for combat and was trailing in the polls.
“Newt’s a fighter. You knock him down and he comes back,” said Bob
Livingston, a former Louisiana congressman and supporter. “He’s Rocky
Balboa, he’s the Ever-Ready bunny. When he got that first question in the
debate, a lot of people would have folded. He hit back.”
The question he referred to was put to Gingrich by CNN’s moderator at the
start of the debate. Asked for a comment on a claim by his second wife
Marianne that in 1999 he asked for an open marriage because he was in the
midst of an affair with his congressional aide, Gingrich didn’t flinch.
He launched a counter-attack on the “elite media” for ignoring the “real
issues”, and for delving in “trash” and “protecting
Barack Obama”. In the course of the answer he protested that the claim
was false.
The all-Republican crowd in the Charleston Coliseum rose to their feet in
exaltation. It was red meat to a conservative constituency that feels
perennially belittled and under served by the mainstream media.
Called “baggage” in the political trade, Gingrich’s personal history
is however undoubtedly an issue for some Republicans. He has been married
three times – Callista Bisek, his mistress in the 1990s, became his third
wife.
He allegedly discussed divorce with his first wife Jackie while she was
hospitalised with cancer. Marianne said he pushed for his second divorce
months after she had been diagnosed with multiple sclerosis.
A friend and former aide who was so appalled by his treatment of Jackie has
said Gingrich told him: “You know and I know that she’s not young
enough or pretty enough to be the wife of a president.”
Jackie was 10 years older and had given him two daughters, who, it should be
pointed out, are working for their father’s campaign and dismissed the open
marriage claims.
On Friday morning, women among his supporters in South Carolina dismissed the
marital scandal. “The private stuff doesn’t matter as much as what he
can do for the country,” said Gloria Davis, 64.
But veterans of Republican races were not so sure. “I expect a lot of
women are asking their husbands today, ‘Are you really going to vote for
that man?’ His answer sounded good at the time, but an hour later you are
wondering if it was really so good,” said Alex Castellanos, a leading
Republican consultant in Washington.
Gingrich’s scorched earth policy may well have worked in South Carolina. In
the week’s earlier debate he inspired another standing ovation with a
denouncement of welfare slackers. He has relentlessly attacked Romney for
pocketing millions from slashing jobs as head of the leveraged buyout firm
Bain Capital.
But even in this Bible belt state his abrasiveness rubs some voters the wrong
way. “He is very smart, but I would like to see a more humble
confidence rather than that arrogant confidence,” said Jonathan
Dickson, an actor who was leaning towards supporting Santorum.
Newton Leroy Gingrich’s capacity for self-aggrandisement is indeed legendary.
Two of the smaller items his ego has been compared to are a Graf Zeppelin
and the moon.
Now 68, he would have Americans believe that as a young congressman he was a
key player in Ronald Reagan’s conservative revolution. But as Romney pointed
out in Thursday’s debate, he merits just one mention in the former
president’s diaries.
Gingrich often cites his bold leadership of Congress, but his obstinacy led to
a shutdown of government, while his talent for antagonism led to a coup by
fellow Republicans in 1998.
He was heavily fined for ethics violations and has been out of office for 13
years. Senator Jim Talent of Missouri, who served in the House with Gingrich
but now supports Romney, calls him “unreliable” and “outrageous”.
Gingrich is also, by his own admission, not suited to conventional
campaigning. After months of disagreements, his entire senior staff walked
out in the summer. The last straw was his refusal to abandon a Greek island
cruise with Callista and hit the campaign trail.
His bid is essentially a one-man show aided by relatively inexperienced staff
mostly drawn from American Solutions, the pressure group he formed in 2007
to support various Right-wing candidates and causes.
This can lead to poor planning choices. On Friday morning he had to cancel a
speech at a Republican conference in Charleston because of poor attendance.
There were more reporters than members of the audience.
He then visited the Medical University of South Carolina’s Children’s
Hospital, leading a crush of cameras through narrow corridors as hospital
staff looked somewhat bemused.
Callista read from her children’s book Sweet Land of Liberty, about an
elephant named Ellis who traverses America’s short but glorious history.
The hospital could only muster four children to listen. One toddler presented
his back to her while another played with Lego all the way through. None
seemed too keen on a photograph with the potential first lady of the United
States.
A whole morning had gone and Gingrich had still not delivered a usable word to
South Carolinian voters with less than 24 hours to go to the polls opening.
The primary roadshow will on Monday move to Florida, a much bigger state than
Iowa (where Gingrich also came fourth), New Hampshire or South Carolina.
Millions more dollars will be needed for television advertising before
voting on Jan 31. After that come another eight contests in February and
then ten states at once on Super Tuesday, March 6.
Gingrich has the bare bones of a campaign in place in the Sunshine State, but
will once again be living largely on his wits and his acerbic turn of phrase.
With debates, pre-recorded phone calls and the Internet, candidates are able
to reach voters more directly and cheaply these days, allowing the likes of
Gingrich or Ron Paul, the maverick libertarian congressman, to stay in the
race for longer than they would have in the past.
One viral moment on the web can compensate in part for a lack of traditional
boots on the ground and phone-bashing volunteers.
“Organisation is less important, that’s true, until you actually have to
do the job in the White House,” said Castellanos. “If Newt becomes
president it would be like his campaign. It would make chaos look organized.
That’s who he is.”
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