In a sign of growing frustrations with the dragging conflict, Francois
Hollande, the new French president said his country had done “more than
its duty” since the 2001 US-led invasion ousted the hardline Taliban
leadership.
And a row over re-opening Pakistan supply routes into Afghanistan to NATO
convoys also lingered, although Mr Obama and NATO chief Anders Fogh
Rasmussen seemed optimistic the issue would be resolved.
French officials said a calendar for withdrawing French troops by the end of
2012 – a year early – would be drawn up within the next 10 days, as Mr
Hollande signaled reluctance to stump more cash for Afghan security forces.
The 28 NATO leaders and their 22 partners in the war, as far afield as
Australia, Georgia and South Korea, issued a final statement saying Afghans
will be in “lead for security nationwide” by mid-2013.
Though NATO troops will gradually shift focus to training and support,
alliance officials stressed foreign soldiers would still participate in
combat operations when needed until late 2014.
The 50 nations involved in the war endorsed a US plan to provide $4.1 billion
in annual security aid to Afghanistan and reduce the size of Afghan forces
from a peak of 352,000 to 228,500.
The United States has offered to pay half the bill while the international
community is expected to fund the rest. But the summit declaration makes
clear that the security aid will not last forever.
The declaration says the Afghan government’s share of the bill will increase
progressively from $500 million in 2015, “with the aim that it can
assume, no later than 2024, full financial responsibility for its own
security forces.”
Mr Obama also met briefly with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, in a bid
to try to resolve the issue of access to the supply routes closed in
November after a botched US air raid left 24 Pakistani soldiers dead.
To ferry troops, food and equipment into Afghanistan, NATO has relied on cargo
flights and a more costly northern route network through Russia, Central
Asia and the Caucasus.
Mr Zardari suggested to the summit that his government wanted to resolve the
issue, saying officials had been told to “conclude negotiations.”
The
agreement comes after officials conceded earlier in the day that al-Qaeda
could re-emerge in Afghanistan to threaten the West after Nato
troops leave the country in two years’ time, alliance officials conceded on
Monday.
A senior US general also warned that Nato forces would face combat with the
Taliban until the very last day of the alliance mission in Afghanistan.
The downbeat assessments of Afghanistan and its prospects emerged even as Nato
leaders met at a summit in Chicago and outlined plans to withdraw their
forces by the end of 2014.
President Obama declared that the Afghan war was now “effectively over”, while
David Cameron said the handover plan was “on track and on target”.
However, despite their optimistic appraisal, Nato officials conceded the
possibility of al-Qaeda and other groups returning after the West’s
withdrawal.
“It is unrealistic to assume that Afghanistan is going to be completely secure
and there is no possibility of a terrorist threat reemerging,” said a senior
British official.
“But our achievements of the last decade mean that we will withdraw from a
country where the threat is much reduced and where Afghan forces are now
much more able to respond to that threat.”
The potential return of al-Qaeda has prompted British generals to draw up
plans to keep up to 200 British Special Forces soldiers in Afghanistan for
counter-terrorism missions after 2014. Mr Cameron has yet to approve those
plans, officials said.
Nato forces entered Afghanistan in 2001 after al-Qaeda’s September 11 attacks
on the US. The alliance is preparing to end its mission there, arguing that
the Afghan government will soon be able to secure the country on its own.
Mr Cameron on Monday night described 2013 as “an inflection point” in the
campaign and insisted that the Nato mission has been a success. “Our troops
can leave with their heads held high,” he said.
The US has also started reducing its numbers. After 2014, “the Afghan war as
we understand it is over, but our commitment to friendship and partnership
with Afghanistan continues,” Mr Obama said.
Mr Cameron said that the level of attacks by the Taliban is “declining and
will go on declining”.
But his upbeat message about the transition process was counterbalanced by
General John Allen, the commander of Nato forces in Afghanistan, who said
the “milestone” and the troop withdrawals won’t mean an end to combat
operations.
“Combat operations will continue in the country throughout the period of the
remainder of the ISAF mission, which will conclude on the 31 st of December,
2014,”
The “milestone” won’t mean any reduction in the threat to international
forces.
“I don’t want to, again, understate the challenge that we have ahead of us.
The Taliban is still a resilient and capable opponent in the battle space.
There’s no end of combat before the end of 2014.”
Allen also suggested that Nato could yet have to send reinforcements into
Helmand, the main area of British operations if commanders see the Taliban
“beginning to surge in behind our forces.”
“The Taliban have been unambiguous in that they intend to take advantage of
the removal of the surge forces, and so we have planned for that,” he said.
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