TUESDAY, June 12 (HealthDay News) — Health care spending in the
United States from 2011 to 2013 is expected to grow 4 percent, which is
slightly more than the historic low of 3.8 percent in 2009, government
officials said Tuesday.
According to the experts at the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid
Services (CMS), growth in health care spending by consumers remained
sluggish in 2011 and that trend is expected to continue this year and
next.
“We are expecting near-historic low growth in health spending for the
first three years of our projection period,” Sean Keehan, a senior
economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary and lead author of the report,
said during an early-afternoon press conference.
But in 2014, when all the facets of the Affordable Care Act go into
effect, health care spending is expected to increase significantly, he
added. “This is especially the case for prescription drugs and clinician
clinical services,” Keehan said.
“In addition, by 2021, the number of uninsured people is expected to be
reduced by nearly 30 million,” Keehan noted.
By 2021, health care spending is expected to be 19.6 percent of the
gross domestic product (GDP), up from 17.9 percent in 2010, according to
the report published online June 12 and in the July print edition of
Health Affairs.
Despite the slow rate in health spending growth seen during the
recession and beyond, in 2014 health spending growth is expected to pick
up and accelerate to 7.4 percent. This increase is largely due to the
expansion of the Affordable Care Act, which will make medical care
accessible for many more people, according to the report.
In addition, from 2011 through 2021, health care spending is expected
to grow an average of 5.7 percent a year, which is 0.9 percent faster than
the expected yearly increase in gross domestic product over that time.
And by 2021, federal, state and local government health care spending
is expected to account for almost 50 percent of national health
expenditures. That’s up from 46 percent in 2011, with federal spending
accounting for some two-thirds of the total government share, the
researchers reported.
These rising costs are being driven by more baby boomers enrolling in
Medicare and more people taking advantage of Medicaid as its coverage is
expanded under the Affordable Care Act. In addition, subsidizing people
who buy their health care insurance through health insurance exchange
plans will increase government’s bottom line, the report authors
noted.
“By the end of the projection period, higher income growth and the
continuing shift of baby boomers into Medicare are expected to cause
health spending to grow roughly 2 percentage points faster than overall
economic growth, which is about the same differential experienced over the
past 30 years,” the study authors concluded.
Some factors that may make it necessary to update these projections
include the slow growth of the economy and the upcoming U.S. Supreme Court
ruling on the Affordable Care Act, which is expected this month.
“Like everyone else, we are waiting to see what the Supreme Court
finds,” Keehan said. “We don’t have any plans to redo the projections
immediately following the decision, but those plans could change depending
on what the decision is.”
More information
For more about health care spending, visit the Kaiser Family Foundation.
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