Israeli report: Iran would respond with restraint to a strike on its nuclear sites

November 22nd, 2013

FAKE NEWS for the Zionist agenda

Special to WorldTribune.com

TEL AVIV â€” Israel has assessed that Iran was unlikely to launch a regional war even its nuclear infrastructure was destroyed.

Israel’s leading strategic institute has concluded that Teheran would demonstrate restraint in wake of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

In a report, the Institute for National Security Studies said Iranian leaders feared a war that could end the mullah regime.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei waves to members of the paramilitary Basij force at the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosque in Teheran on Nov. 20. /Office of the Supreme Leader/AP

“The main Iranian interest is in regime survival, and therefore the regime would consider whether its response would enhance the threat against it,” the report, titled “If Attacked, How Would Iran Respond?” said.

Authors Amos Yadlin and Avner Golov said Iran would be more restrained in wake of an Israeli attack than that by the United States. They said Teheran would not see an Israeli air strike as threatening the Iranian regime.

“If in Teheran’s assessment the United States had decided to use its full power in order to topple the regime, this would reduce Iran’s inhibitions, and the scope of the Iranian response could be expected to increase,” the report said. “If Teheran’s assessment is that the United States is limiting its attack to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and that it is likely to broaden its attack against the regime only in response to an Iranian response, the chances would increase of Iran’s exercising restraint in order to avoid escalation that would threaten the survival of the regime.”

Institute director Yadlin, a former military intelligence commander,
drafted the report in wake of U.S. assessments that any attack on Iran would
trigger a regional war. But the institute said Iran, despite one of the
largest missile arsenals in the Middle East, could not sustain any conflict.

Iran’s intermediate-range ballistic missiles, including the Shihab-3 and
Ghadir, were deemed ineffective against military targets. Iran’s unmanned
aerial vehicles were also said to be ineffective at long range, particularly
against Israel’s air and missile defense umbrella.

“However, because the missiles have a low level of accuracy and this
non-conventional weapon is not effective in a missile attack, Iran’s limited
capability in this area and its leadership’s understanding that the use of
chemical weapons would damage Iran’s legitimacy and lead to a military
response on an entirely different level would likely actually prevent a
non-conventional attack in response to a conventional attack on Iranâ€™s
nuclear facilities,” the report said.

Yadlin and Golov also played down the prospect of a major Iranian
insurgency campaign against Israel. The report said Teheran has been
repeatedly foiled in both kinetic and cyber attacks against Israeli
interests over the last decade.

The report, however, envisioned an Iranian missile strike against
Israel’s nuclear reactor in Dimona. Teheran was also expected to order
insurgency strikes against the Jewish state and its interests abroad. Iran’s
main proxy, Hizbullah, already embroiled in Syria, could limit retaliation
against Jerusalem.

“Thus, in a scenario involving a pinpoint strike on the Iranian nuclear
program, the regime would seek to respond without causing escalation and
significant American intervention in the crisis,” the report said.