Is May 18 the Beginning of the End for Facebook?

COMMENTARY | On May 18, Facebook will go public. Ten years from now, Internet users might be saying FaceWhat? (Remember MySpace?). Going public could mark the beginning of the end for Facebook for much the same reason that MySpace went by the wayside.

See, going public now means you have stockholders who want profitable dividends from their investment. When going into an IPO, a company already makes a certain amount of money, which includes some profit. That profit is what the stock purchaser is counting on – a share, a piece of that pie, so to speak. That means that you have to maintain those profits and the hope of the stockholder is that you will continue to grow profits and grow the company so they can enjoy stock splits and the like. Stockholders buy stock because they want to make money on that venture.

So, for the company that now goes public, the pressure is on. Profits, profits, profits.

What happens to the consumer of a free product like Facebook is now they have to start pulling their weight. The likelihood of ads bombarding you while you’re trying to find out what Suzie just said about Bob is going to increase.

Facebook users have already been pushed into new timeline format for their pages, presumably a format that sets the stage for easier advertising bombardment. Oh, you don’t want your page to clog because you’re being bombarded by the latest trailer for a movie you will never go see? Too bad. Time to pay the piper.

MySpace went this way. What was once a site where you could customize “Your Space” in all sorts of clever ways went by the wayside. Users were forced in to rigid templates and the ad bombardment began.

And while we’re here, let’s also talk about how Facebook is not serving the small-business community. Personal pages are limited to 5,000 friends. Business pages cannot do friendship requests, and it is difficult for individuals to share anything on a business page. So, imagine how the “next” thing would fair if, like MySpace, you were allowed unlimited “friends” and could communicate more directly with your customers. (Hence the popularity of Twitter. The drawback with Twitter, however, is that it doesn’t have much real estate to create a visual representation of a company. The point of Twitter is “being brief.”)

So, will Facebook be just a step on the ladder to the next ultimate social media platform? Or, after going public, will it continue to build on its success and morph into a bigger and better thing? History shows, it will go by the wayside.

The pressure to create more profit will compromise the experience and leave behind what built it in the first place. It will not evolve. It will die out. But evolution will occur and a mutation will emerge that learns from the mistakes of those past, brings something new to the table and bursts forth on to the scene.

I don’t know about you, but I’m ready for the next new thing.

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