”The leadership in Tehran is not stupid and they must realise that the whole
exercise is costing them a very great deal and the question is: ‘is it worth
it’?” said Prof Paul Stevens, senior research fellow on energy at Chatham
House. “This will have an effect on their bargaining position.”
Last year, Iran sold almost 600,000 barrels of oil per day to the EU. Those
exports will end by 1 July, forcing the country to seek alternative buyers.
China, India and South Korea – now Iran’s biggest customers – are also under
pressure from America, which will exclude them from the US financial system
unless they buy less oil from Tehran.
In addition, US and EU financial sanctions make it harder for Iran to sell its
crude. Simply arranging payment through the global banking system can prove
impossible.
China is importing an extra 450,000 barrels of crude per day for a new
strategic reserve. The country could pay Iran in goods – not cash – in order
to get around financial sanctions.
With Iran hunting for customers, however, China is in a position to drive a
hard bargain, which could help to explain the number of tankers now lying
idle, added Prof Stevens. “The Chinese are going to hang on until the last
minute in order to beat the best price out of them,” he said.
Iran’s tankers routinely conceal their movements by turning off their
“transponders”, the devices which allow them to be tracked. But their
locations can still be discovered by satellites. If its storage capacity –
whether using tankers or onshore sites – hits physical limit, Iran would
have to cut production simply because there would be nowhere to place its
oil.
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