Iran scientist death: Nuclear unrest raises possibility of war in 2012

By
Michael Burleigh

Last updated at 5:42 PM on 11th January 2012


Target: Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan who was killed in Tehran today when two motorcyclists attached a magnetic bomb attached to a car

Target: Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan who was killed in Tehran by a car bomb

On Saturday the Iranian Atomic Energy Organisation announced that production of uranium, enriched to 20 per cent, would commence at the underground facility of Fardow near the holy city of Qom.

The site consists of a bunker beneath a mountain. This level of uranium enrichment exceeds whatever might be involved in producing radiological therapies for cancer patients.

Almost like clockwork, yesterday morning two men on motorbikes attached a magnetic explosive device to a car containing Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, a 32-year-old chemist who was deputy director for commercial procurement at the Natanz nuclear plant. He died immediately; his Revolutionary Guard bodyguard come driver expired a few hours later.

Yesterday was the second anniversary of the death of Masoud Ali Mohammadi, a nuclear scientist blown up outside his house by a bomb attached to a motorbike parked nearby on the same street. Three other Iranian scientists have also been killed using roughly the same MO.

Clearly being a nuclear scientist is not a very healthy occupation in Iran today.

These assassinations have been accompanied by much tougher western sanctions. The US Congress has virtually criminalised anyone dealing with the Bank of Iran, which processes all international payments for oil and gas exports.

The EU is likely to follow within this month. In a further tightening of the noose, the US Treasury Secretary is touring China and Japan, encouraging them to stop buying Iranian crude oil.


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A crane lifts away the wreckage of Mr Roshan's car after he was killed by a magnetic bomb was attached to it

A crane lifts away the wreckage of Mr Roshan’s car after he was killed by a magnetic bomb was attached to it

That will have a devastating effect on Iran, which needs income from crude oil and gas exports to pay for its imports of refined petrol, which thanks to its decrepit refining capacity, is in short supply. It would incentivise the sort of dissent we saw in 2009 over the stolen election.

Iran’s responses to these measures have been predictably stupid. It has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, the 21 miles wide waterway, whose shipping channel narrows to 2 miles.

It recently carried out naval exercises there, and has warned the US not to patrol it with carriers from the Fifth Fleet, a warning the US Navy will ignore.

Iran’s naval chief has boasted that closing the Strait will be as easy as drinking a glass of water. He forgets that one of those US carriers has more airpower on board than most countries dispose of, backed up by a huge strategic bomber fleet and satellite intelligence of incredible sophistication.

Spate: Four scientists apparently involved in Iran's nuclear programme have been killed in the last two years

Spate: Four scientists apparently involved in Iran’s nuclear programme have been killed in the last two years

Tensions: Type 45 Destroyer HMS Daring, which was sent to the Strait of Hormuz last week after Iran blockade threats

Tensions: Type 45 Destroyer HMS Daring, which was sent to the Strait of Hormuz last week after Iran blockade threats

If they mine the Straits of Hormuz, the mines will go in the first 24 hours, followed by every minelaying ship Iran possesses. Today Iran is threatening to retaliate in kind for the mystery killing of its scientists and technicians.

In other words, it is refusing, as it has done all along, to enter into negotiations to find a way for it to have civil nuclear power, but not a bomb. There have been several perfectly reasonable suggestions on the table, including Russian offers to do the enrichment processing (to acceptable limits) for them.

Like most people, here, in the US or China and Japan, I don’t want to see a war in the Persian Gulf, not least because it will send the price of oil through the roof, and tip all our economies into deep recession.

I was vaguely nauseated when the new Defence Secretary, Phillip Hammond, rattled Britain’s little sabre in Washington, especially since the Pentagon is being much more cautious.

So on the crisis goes, in all likelihood, resulting in the Iranian regime making some serious misstep, which will result in a war at some point in 2012.

Here’s what other readers have said. Why not add your thoughts,
or debate this issue live on our message boards.

The comments below have not been moderated.

Mossad’s dirty paw-prints are all over this – yet again they’re seducing our idiotic, brain-dead , hypnotised leaders into another all-out war. When is this madness going to end, is it when the world is reduced to a smoking, irradiated ruin?

Mysterious my A**, you guys are short on credibility.

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