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February 16th, 2024 
Awake Goy After single-family home starts plunged in December, analysts did not expect much of a bounce back in January as rates remain high and some regions were affected by weather.
Analysts were way off. Housing Starts puked 14.8% MoM in January (vs unchanged exp), but December’s 4.3% MoM decline was revised up to a 3.3% MoM rise. Building Permits also tumbled, down 1.5% MoM (vs +1.3% exp) and well down from the +1.8% MoM in December…
Source: Bloomberg
This pushed the Housing Starts SAAR back near post-COVID lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Don’t expect Permits to be reaccelerating anytime soon as mortgage rates have started to rise once again…
Source: Bloomberg
DO NOT BLAME THE WEATHER! It’s January – we know there are weather issues and that should be more than ‘priced-in’ on a seasonal adjustment basis.
Multi-family permits cratered to their lowest since Oct 2020…
And multi-family starts were even worse, plunging from 489k SAAR to 314k SAAR – the lowest since May 2020 (when the economy was closed)…
Which is not good news for CPI either as it suggests there is little rent relief coming soon.
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