Kilauea, on the Big Island of Hawaii, is one of the more active shield volcanoes in the Aloha State and observers at the United States Geological Survey are saying that the odds of a major eruption have increased significantly in recent days.

“Activity at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano continues to change, as shown by a pronounced drop in the level of the lava lake within Halemaʻumaʻu Crater, a change in the summit area deformation pattern, and the concentrated earthquake activity in the southern part of the caldera and upper Southwest Rift Zone,” a recent statement from the USGS said.

A lake of molten rock near the summit of the volcano had risen to record-high levels, but, as the USGS statement pointed out, the lava level has subsided, dropping almost 500 feet. As lava levels have been rising and falling, a series of earthquakes have radiated out from Kilauea.

These eruptions are impending

USGS scientists also said deformations of the ground could point to impending eruptions.

“Clearly the lava, by dropping out of sight, it has to be going somewhere,” said Steven Brantley, deputy scientist at the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory told the AP.

According to reports, two minor volcanic activities are already taking place on Kilauea. First, lava has been flowing into Halemaumau Crater, which is located in the much larger summit caldera of Kilauea. Second, is the eruption at Puu Oo vent, a feature in the volcano’s east rift zone that streamed lava toward the town of Pahoa last year. Lava flows stopped just outside a shopping center.

In their statement, USGS researchers said earthquakes have been centered on the southern part of the volcano, and this could mean that an eruption is coming from southwest of the Halemaumau Crater. An eruption in the volcano’s upper Southwest Rift Zone would be the first in more than 40 years.

Researchers also conceded that all this activity could lead to nothing.

“We don’t know what the outcome of this activity might be,” Brantley said. “That is the challenge. [We are] trying to interpret what this activity really means in terms of the next step for Kilauea.”