Government will miss targets on immigration, warns think tank

By
James Slack

Last updated at 12:08 AM on 2nd January 2012


Immigration pledge: The IPPR predicted the government would not meet David Cameron's promises over net migration

Immigration pledge: The IPPR think tank predicted the government would not meet its promises over net migration

Immigration to Britain will fall sharply this year, a think-tank said yesterday – but not by enough to meet the Prime Minister’s target.

The Institute for Public Policy Research claimed that net migration – the difference between the number of people arriving in the UK, and those leaving – would be cut from a record 252,000 in 2010 to 180,000.

But the figure falls short of David Cameron’s commitment to reduce net migration to the ‘tens of thousands’ during the lifetime of the current Parliament, it said.

The IPPR, considered New Labour’s favourite think-tank, claimed the best hope of fulfilling the pledge was for an economic downturn to make the country less attractive to migrants and drive away EU migrants already here.

Its report predicted that the number of migrants coming to the UK from outside the  EU would fall by about 10 per cent in 2012, fuelled by  new restrictions on foreign students and worsening economic conditions.

But the IPPR said further curbs on skilled migrants coming to the UK were unlikely to reduce overall numbers by more than 10,000.

More restrictions on family migration were also likely to have little immediate effect as they are expected to be held up by legal challenges.

Matt Cavanagh of the IPPR said: ‘While policy changes will start to achieve significant reductions in immigration from outside the EU, this will not be enough to put the Government on track to hit its target.’

But Immigration Minister Damian Green insisted the Government’s aspirations could still be achieved.

The graph reveals the level of net migration over the past decade

The graph reveals the level of net migration over the past decade

‘The IPPR’s predicted reduction in net migration of 70,000 by the end of 2012 is consistent with hitting our target of reducing net migration to the tens of thousands by the end of this Parliament,’ he said.

‘We’ve limited non-EU workers coming to the UK, overhauled the student visa system and will shortly announce reforms of the family migration and settlement routes.’

Mr Green added: ‘The latest quarterly figures show that student visas issued are down 13 per cent and the main work visas issued are down 18 per cent compared with last year – an early sign that our policies are starting to take effect.’

Alp Mehmet, vice chairman of the pressure group MigrationWatch, said: ‘The fact is that the Government is on course but has a very long way to go.’

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