Ghassan Shabaneh: Syria has been pushed back by 50 years because of the conflict

August 31st, 2013

FAKE NEWS for the Zionist agenda

Ghassan Shabaneh

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW

Ghassan Shabaneh believes that in the short term western intervention in Syria could produce some nasty consequences.

Just like in Kosovo, Iraq, Yemen, Afghanistan and Pakistan it could complicate the situation on the ground; targets won’t be clear and so civilians could suffer. But in the long run, he says, it’s a good move. It will boost the morale of the opposition and send a clear signal to the regime that using chemical weapons will not be tolerated.

Ever since the chemical attack last week, in which over 1,000 died, Britain, The United States and France have moved closer and closer towards military action in Syria. This week the UK parliament was recalled to debate a response to the situation as result Britain is no longer committed to this option. But this is not the first time chemical weapons have been used in the conflict, which is well into its third year. Why, then, has the west decided to act now?

“I think it’s the scale this time” says Ghassan Shabaneh, Associate Professor of Middle East and International Studies at Marymount Manhattan College in New York. “Every time we heard before that chemical weapons were used, we were told it’s still quiet, it’s still scale 7, it’s scale 10. There were some reports that it was inaccurate, there were some reports that we didn’t know if it really happened or not. There were never, ever any clear scenes from the ground to tell us exactly what happened.”

It is Assad who is being held responsible for the attack yet even Russia, who has remained one of his closest allies throughout the conflict, has not produced a sharp response to threats of western intervention. According to Shabaneh, they have said they will withdraw their uranium to allow for such military action to take place, if the west decides to go ahead with it.

In an interview with Charlie Rose – an American talk show host – on September 25 last year Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russian generals were in full control of the Syrian chemical stockpiles and were co-ordinating, even with the Americans, on their safety and mobility. But last Wednesday’s chemical attack, which came from a prohibited stockpile, proved that even Russia had not been able to manage their use.

“It seems to me that even the Russians, who have guaranteed the safety of this chemical agent, have not been able to control it, have not been able to secure it. And that’s why even the Russians are opposing and not objecting to military action or to a punishment for the regime.”

Another of Assad’s prominent allies, Iran, has warned that western military intervention will initiate retaliatory attacks and a region wide disaster. But Shabaneh believes they are too weak to stand up to the west, as are other countries in the Middle East, and doing so will invite retaliation. “The Iranians know when to talk and when to be silent and when to act and when to be paralysed” he says.

“I believe that the Iranians are more rational than getting themselves involved with three or four major allies. I don’t see that they can stand to the United States; I don’t see think that they can stand up to Great Britain, France and Turkey combined. It seems to me that whoever will lead, the clear message to Iran is that it’s better for you not to get involved.”

The west is already unhappy with Iranians, says Shabaneh, whether it’s their support for global terrorism, their support for regional organisations like Hamas or Hezbollah, or how they’ve conducted themselves with Iraq – striking back to defend their ally would not do them any favours.

In Syria’s south-western corner lies the Golan Heights, a plateau captured and taken under Israeli control in the 1967 Six-Day War and annexed in 1981. If the western-led military intervention takes place in Syria, one danger is that Israel could take advantage of a weakened Syria, and capture more land.

But Israel enjoys having secure countries around it, says Shabaneh.”Israel loves stability on its borders; a stable Jordan is much better than a divided Jordan; a stable Egypt is much better than a divided Egypt. They love a one man show, so if they want to send a message, they send a message to one man. This has been one of the most fundamental Israeli policies for the last 65 years.”

Besides, he says, the Israeli economy is too weak and is certainly not up for another adventure to occupy more land. “The Israeli economy is suffering so much from what’s going on in the Middle East and in the West Bank.” And neither the west, nor the Syrians would tolerate it. “The west would not allow it, or the Syrian people, or the Syrian government. Because the west is interested in ending the Arab Israeli conflict, rather than expanding it.”

Even if the expansion of Israel’s occupation isn’t an issue, the five permanent members of the Security Council have failed to reach a decision on whether or not to go ahead with the strikes. In a recent press conference in Geneva Lakhdar Brahimi, UN Special Envoy to Syria said that moves to intervene beyond the Security Council would be illegal. But western powers have made it clear that they will go ahead without this approval, much like they did when they hit Serbia in 1999 or went into Iraq in 2003.

Instead, the west will justify their intervention on the 2005 UN initiative ‘responsibility to protect’, says Shabaneh, which was designed to prevent genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing. “When Barack Obama says – whenever it is – I have ordered American forces into Damascus, the justification that he will use is the responsibility to protect civilians. He will not cite the United Nations Charter.”

The 2005 responsibility to protect “could serve as a legal and an ethical basis for the United States and its allies to find a legal justification for what they want to do.” This initiative is even more relevant in Syria, he says, than it was with Kosovo and the Iraq invasion because so many civilians have suffered from the fighting, which has been magnified due to the involvement of regional powers.

Intervention, says Shabaneh, will speed up the process for Geneva II, the UN-backed conference which was designed to bring about a resolution to the crisis in Syria. When it takes place it will be more like that of the Dayton Accords. Dayton was convened in 1995 by the west and put an end to the three and a half year Bosnian war, preserving Bosnia as a single state made up of two parts.

“I don’t think the west at this stage is thinking of dividing Syria into three or four states, however they may have to look into quarters, i.e. giving the Kurds some ministries, giving the Christians some ministries, giving the Alawites some ministries and giving the Sunnis and the Druze some ministries.”

If the west is to act, says Shabaneh, it must be followed by a commitment to strengthening the opposition, not just militarily, but through training on how to run the country. Sending in cruise missiles to destroy the defence ministry or the intelligence department, the runways and the airports “could hinder or delay or suspend the regime’s superiority for maybe a month or two” but the west needs to focus on reconstructing Syria and helping people own their lives again. Syria has been pushed back by 50 years because of the conflict.

“I’m talking about the civilian section of the country; I’m talking about the courts, hospitals, schools, government agencies and technicians. I’m talking about a lot of nation building into Syria for the Syrians to really be able to live their lives. Syria is in need of at least $100 billion in loans to rebuild the infrastructure of the country, we are talking about a country that has been shattered and has been really suffered from a lot of destruction.”

Ghassan Shabaneh is a Mellon Fellow in Human Security at the Ralph Bunche Institute for International Relations at the CUNY Graduate Center, and he is an Associate Professor of Middle East and International Studies at Marymount Manhattan College in NYC. Dr. Shabaneh wrote his doctoral dissertation on “The Role of The United Nations in State Building: The Case of Palestine”. He taught and lectured at Rutgers, Hunter, and Queens Colleges in the last few years. During his career, Mr. Shabaneh has done extensive field research in the Middle East.