GDP figures: Hope for George Osborne as economy grew by 0.6% in third quarter

  • Growth was 0.1% higher than previously thought at 0.6% between July and September
  • Second quarter growth was 0%, worse than expected
  • U.S. publishing third quarter GDP figures later as markets watch with bated breath

By
Rob Cooper

Last updated at 1:40 PM on 22nd December 2011


Economic hope: GDP figures were 0.1% higher than expected in the third quarter, George Osborne discovered today

Economic hope: GDP figures were 0.1% higher than expected in the third quarter, George Osborne discovered today

George Osborne was given a glimmer of economic hope today as GDP figures revealed growth was better than expected in the third quarter.

But despite the good news Britain is at risk of a double dip recession next year as the crisis continues in the eurozone.

The economy grew by 0.6 per cent between July and September – compared with previous estimates of 0.5 per cent.

In the second quarter the economy GDP was at zero – lower than the original estimate of a 0.1 per cent increase, revised figures revealed.

Later the U.S. will publish their revised third quarter growth figures as the markets watch with bated breath.

Despite today’s modest good news it has been a winter of gathering gloom for the economy.

The tax and spending watchdog, the
Office for Budget Responsibility, recently slashed official forecasts
for growth, following a downbeat assessment of the economy from the Bank
of England.

Yesterday figures revealed that government borrowing fell by more than expected.

Official figures showed a budget shortfall of £18.1billion last month – down from £20.4billion in November 2010 and less than the £19.7billion predicted in the City.

Today, data released by the Office for National Statistics revealed the third quarter was boosted by better than estimated growth in agriculture, construction and services, while the second quarter was hit by weaker than estimated figures in the services sector.

Economists have warned that July to October was always expected to be a strong quarter as the economy played catch-up from the previous three months.

The extra Bank Holiday for the Royal Wedding and the impact of the Japanese tsunami stunted growth between April and June.

GDP growth by quarter

GDP growth: Graph shows how the UK went into a sharp recession in the second quarter of 2008 before beginning to grow again very slowly in the third quarter of 2009. However, GDP fell by 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Revised figures today show, right, how the economy actually grew by 0% in the third quarter of this year and 0.6% in quarter three, 0.1% higher than thought

Slump then modest growth

Slump then modest growth: This graph shows how the economy began to contract in early 2008 before growing again in 2009. The graph shows change over time and quarter three 2008 was given an index figure of 100. The manufacturing fell particularly sharply before rebounding. The economy as a whole and the manufacturing and services sectors all remain significantly smaller than they were in late 2007

ECONOMY STUTTERS AMID DOUBLE DIP FEARS

After falling back into negative growth in the last quarter of 2010, the economy has barely grown at all this year.

After a 0.4 per cent rise in quarter one, the economy flatlined in quarter two and grew by 0.6 per cent in quarter three.

Growth by quarter since 2010

2010
Quarter one: 0.4%
Quarter two: 1.1%
Quarter three: 0.7%
Quarter four: minus 0.5%

2011
Quarter one: 0.4%
Quarter two: 0%
Quarter three: 0.6%

Chris Williamson, chief economist at
financial services information company Markit, said: ‘The underlying
trend is very clearly one of an economy that is struggling in the face
of what seems to be an ever-growing list of headwinds.’

Manufacturing,
services and trade surveys have been mixed so far in the final quarter
of the year, prompting fears that the UK is heading for a double-dip
recession.

The
powerhouse services sector, which makes up some 75 per cent of the total
economy, grew at 0.7 per cent in the third quarter, up from a previous
estimate of 0.6 per cent.

Agriculture grew at 0.5 per cent in the third quarter, while construction was ahead 0.3 per cent.

But industrial production growth was revised down once again to 0.2 per cent from 0.4 per cent, which partially offset improvements in the stronger sectors.

The squeeze on household spending was underlined by figures revealing real disposable income growth slowed to 0.3 per cent in the third quarter from 1.3 per cent the previous three months.

Government spending was also revised down to 0.2 per cent from 0.9 per cent – which corresponds more closely with Chancellor George Osborne’s programme of deficit-busting spending cuts.

Looking back to the second quarter, growth in the services sector was revised down to 0.1 per cent from 0.2 per cent.

Here’s what other readers have said. Why not add your thoughts,
or debate this issue live on our message boards.

The comments below have not been moderated.

Ha ha, methinks there are some Labour/Socialist trolls on here!

The Labour Government left this Country on its knees, financially speaking. This Government can only hope to try and keep things stable, and will have no hope of turning back the clock for a very long time.

@Pete Aldershot not only did the idiot sell off more than half our Gold he sold it when it was at a 20 year low (schoolboy Economics tell you to Buy Low, Sell High) and ANNOUNCED his intentions a full 2 months before he acted. He may well go down as one of our most incompetent Chancellors ever!

The big problem after all the hard work and sacrifices by many in getting the economy back on track, is keeping the labour party out, because they will drag the country to it’s knees again if they get the chance.

One quarter of negative growth since Jan 2010 – not great, but hardly flatlining Mr Balls.
– Henry II, London, 22/12/2011 15:57……………You actually believe that one negative, one zero and two small positives over 12 months is NOT flatlining!? Maybe if you compare those figures with the 2.6% that Osborne based his whole economic strategy on last November you may revise your own opinion down, as he has himself 4 times in the last 4 quarters, got the pattern yet?

Like them or loathe them, the coalition were handed a poisoned chalice by the last Labour Government. Who can forget that Gordon McBroon sold off 60% of British Gold reserves raising 3.5 Billion $, HOWEVER that gold today would be worth over 19 Billion $ Labour left office with eye watering debts, this current Gvernment have absolutely no choice but to try and rectify the situation. Sad for all of us, but true,

Why can’t we just leave the money draining EU and spend that money building up British Business? By the way I have never forgotten Liam Byrne’s (Labour’s ex-Treasury Secretary) words, in a note to his successor in 2010. ‘ There is no money left’ Labour were a true disaster for the Economy.

Take us out of the EU and then watch our GDP flourish. Apart from the £50 million we send them a day to tell us how to run our lives, there is the added and huge cost of implementing all their stupid legislation. Make a clean break from the EU, stop propping up other Countrys debts, whose National pastime is tax evasion, stop the whole of the EU coming here to use and abuse our NHS, Benefits, housing, Schools etc and I think we could do quite well.

Not like the growth during LAbours time in office, not getting too excited with 3 million unemployed, more to come when the xmas jobs go, inflation going up…Tories are here , be afraid, be very afraid….

The govt needs to stop spending money it hasn’t got on a grossly inflated and inefficient public sector. Better to pay hundreds of thousands of civil servants the dole rather than exorbitant wages for sending memos to each other.

The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline.

Views: 0

You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

Leave a Reply

Powered by WordPress | Designed by: Premium WordPress Themes | Thanks to Themes Gallery, Bromoney and Wordpress Themes