French Elections: The Second Round

December 7th, 2015

Awake Goy

With the final results of France’s thirteen regional elections now in, the patriotic Front National (FN) has done even better than originally anticipated, coming first in six regions and a close second in a further two, and third in four others.

marine-marion-le-pen

Only in the traditionally separatist and local-dominated island of Corsica did the FN drop to fifth place—but this was entirely expected, although even there the party’s vote climbed to over 10 percent.

The elections were held to elect regional governors. Because no one party gained 50 percent of the votes in the first round, all will now go through to the second round.

In this second round, all parties that achieved 10 percent or more of the vote are eligible to participate, and the winner is the party with the most votes, irrespective of whether the 50 percent mark is reached by that party or not.

The regions where the FN came first are as follows (along with the top three parties who will not be eligible to take part in the second round):

Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur. FN: 41.35%; Republicans (LR): 26.11%; Socialists: 16.26%.
Nord-Pas-de-Calais and Picardy. FN: 41%; Republicans (LR): 25%; Socialists: 17.67%.
Alsace-Lorraine-Champagne-Ardenne. FN: 36.06%; conservative list (LR-UDI-MoDem): 25.83%; Socialists: 16.11%.
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté. FN: 31.48%. Republicans (LR): 24%; Socialists: 22.99%.
Centre-Loire Valley. FN: 30.49%; conservative list (LR-UDI-MoDem): 26.25%; Socialists: 24.31%.
Languedoc-Roussillon, Midi-Pyrenees. FN: 32.65%; Socialists: 24%; Republicans (LR): 18.63%.

The two regions where the FN came a close second are as follows (along with the top three parties who will not be eligible to take part in the second round):

Auvergne Rhone-Alpes. Union of Right: 29.5%; FN: 27.4%; Socialists: 23.4%.
Normandy. Conservatives (LR-UDI-Modem): 27.91%; FN: 27.71%; Socialists: 23.52%.

The four regions where the FN came third are as follows (along with the top three parties who will not be eligible to take part in the second round):

Pays de la Loire. List of the right and center: 33.9%; Socialists: 25.6%; FN: 21.1%.
Ile-de-France. Union of the Right and Center (UD): 30%; Socialists: 25.4%; FN: 18%.
Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes. Socialist-left (PS-PRG list): 30.39%; List of the right and center: 27.19%; FN: 23, 23%.
Brittany. Socialists: 34.92%; Republicans (LR): 23.46%; FN: 18.17%.

The final region, Corsica, polled as follows:

Corsica. Left list: 18.42%; Corsica nationalist list: 17.62%; conservatives: 13.17%; Camille de Rocca-Sera: 12.7%; FN: 10.58%; Regional list: 7.72%.

Previously, it has been very rare for the FN to even make it through to the second round of voting, never mind being in the lead or coming a close second.

In the few times this has happened before, the conservatives and the socialists usually formed an alliance and withdrew one of their candidates from the second round, instructing its voters to cast their ballots for the one remaining non-FN candidate. This tactic has always been successful in keeping the FN out at the second round.

This time round, however, the FN’s strong showing nationally indicates that the playing field has shifted substantially, and there is no longer a firm indication that a cordon sanitaire between the conservatives and the socialists will work.

Much of the FN’s increased vote has come from former voters from the socialists (particularly in the northern regions) and the conservatives (particularly in the southern and eastern regions). This parting of ways between voters and their “traditional” parties means that it is not guaranteed that all non-FN voters will follow their party’s orders to vote against the FN.

Secondly, as political pundits in the French media had already pointed out, the FN has long campaigned on the allegation that the conservatives and the socialists are actually one and the same party.

Now that the FN has taken an outright majority of the votes in a national election, their words carry even more weight, and even an informal alliance will only serve to confirm the truth of the FN claim. This in itself could cause a further fracturing of the anti-FN vote.

boohoo

Nonetheless, it is likely that in the coming week, an accommodation of some sort between the conservatives and socialists will be worked out, even if at regional levels rather than nationally.

Already, the socialists in the FN’s two strongest regions have unilaterally announced that they will not be participating in the second round, in the hope that their voters will join with the conservatives in preventing Marine and Marion le Pen from taking up the governorship seats.

Even so, an election victory in up to four regions by the FN during the second round cannot be discounted, as admitted to by the conservative Le Figaro newspaper. Such an event will be a political earthquake which might well revolutionize contemporary European politics.