“Paris and Berlin have shifted,” a senior Brussels-based official told this
newspaper. “Only David Cameron is in the same place as two years ago. He is
out of step and he will lose.
“In Brussels last week Mr Cameron talked up the preservation of the rebate
because a budget freeze is a lost cause.”
The tabled European Commission demand for 2014 to 2020 spending would mean
that the British government would have to find an extra £1.4bn a year for
extra payments to the EU.
This would mean that almost £3bn in extra tax rises or spending cuts would
have to be found before the next election, in the spending period which ends
in 2015.
With UK economic growth still low, raising tax receipts by £1.4bn a year would
not be straightforward. A 3p a litre increase in fuel duty would raise about
£1.5bn a year.
French diplomats confirmed that Mr Hollande’s support for Mr Sarkozy’s
commitment was “not automatic”, potentially causing a massive problem for Mr
Osborne.
“We have not decided,” one French official said. “Of course the president has
supported an increase as part of increased investment in jobs and growth. A
lot will depend on an auditor’s review of French government debt in July.”
EU budget negotiations have always been fraught, but they are likely to prove
more bitter than ever as many of the continent’s economies lie mired in
recession, with member states inflicting deep public spending cuts.
Britain currently pays 12.4 per cent net share of all Brussels expenditure.
Any further rise is like to step up pressure on David Cameron to hold a
referendum on Britain’s future in the EU.
Writing in The Sunday Telegraph last weekend Mr Cameron said that he was not
opposed to such a referendum, but that now was not the right time.
Stephen Booth, research director of Open Europe, the think tank, said: “There
are clearly question marks over whether Hollande will stick to the deal
signed by Sarkozy on freezing the EU budget.
“Although this would increase the likelihood of the negotiations becoming a
political dogfight, it would also leave the UK with no excuse for not
pushing harder for real reform of things like EU regional spending, which
would actually reduce the budget rather than simply freezing it.”
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