The scenario whereby “4-5 million voters in the first round don’t vote in
the second” is, he claims, “based on sand” as voter turnout
has always been higher in round two since 1965.
A longer-term look at polling trends, he goes on, show that support for
Hollande has consistently fallen since he won Socialist primaries late last
year. (He started on around 39 per cent and is now around 27 per cent),
while Sarkozy started woefully low but is on a slow upward curve.
Hollande, he goes on, will win less votes than Royal, the mother of his four
children, as his popularity is largely (two thirds, says one poll)
based on anti-Sarkozy sentiment.
Hollande’s entire strategy hinges on the election being an anti-Sarkozy
referendum, but that tactic falls down once the “pseudo-referendum
becomes a duel”.
Buisson says that moment has come now that Sarkozy has overtaken him in round
one according to one poll today. “(Hollande) will have to take risks.
It’s perhaps not an exercise where he is at his best,” he claims.
Hollande’s attempts to win over the far-Left by proposing a 75 per cent tax on
the super-rich has not helped his cause but rather boosted the ratings of
leftist Front de Gauche candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, he says.
Sarkozy, meanwhile, his attempts at wooing FN voters this time round “not
by veering Right but by taking into account the concerns of the people”
has not, as some say, been a “failure”.
“A year ago, polls put Nicolas Sarkozy neck and neck with Marine Le Pen
with no certainty he would reach the second round … Today, the gap is
around 10 to 12 per cent.” He has a point, but polls suggest only
between 30-40 per cent of FN sympathisers say they will vote Sarkozy if Le
Pen fails to reach round two, while up to 30 per cent could vote Hollande.
“Sarkozy needs the figure to hit the 50 per cent mark to stand a chance
in round two,” says Romain Rosso, FN specialist at l’Express. “We
may see Sarkozy lose ground again in polls for round one now that Marine Le
Pen has secured 500 signatures from mayors meaning she can run,” he
goes on.
With rules on equal air time to kick in starting next week, Le Pen could yet
pose a threat. Bayrou, who has failed to reach the heights of 2007 may also
see a renaissance and Mélenchon is on an upwards trajectory.
But one thing is for sure: the FN electorate holds the key to Sarkozy’s
success or failure.
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