Although it failed to take her into the second round, Miss Le Pen’s success
will boost her influence on the French political scene, and is likely to
hand her party seats in parliament later in the year. It could affect
relations with minorities in France and in other European countries after a
campaign based on rhetoric against immigrants, Islam and the European Union.
The winner of yesterday’s first round was the Socialist candidate François
Hollande, with 28-29 per cent, who will contest the run-off against
President Nicolas Sarkozy, who, with 25-27 per cent, became the first
incumbent president to lose at the first hurdle.
A victory in the May 6 run-off would make Mr Hollande, 57, France’s first
Socialist leader to be elected since François Mitterrand in 1988. Last night
he pledged to unite the French after Mr Sarkozy’s divisive first term and
declared: “I’m best placed to become next president.” He blamed Mr Sarkozy
for the rise of the far-Right, saying his “discourse over the last few
months has played into the hands of the far-Right”.
Confounding predictions of high abstention records, around 80 per cent of
France’s 44.5 million-strong electorate turned out to vote for the 10
candidates.
The preliminary results showed that Mr Sarkozy, as the chief representative of
the status quo, was the main victim of the disaffection that boosted Miss Le
Pen’s showing. Polls consistently have suggested Mr Hollande will win the
final clash by at least 10 percentage points.
Despite enacting significant reforms in his five-year mandate, Mr Sarkozy has
struggled to fight unemployment – now at a record 10 million. He is
perceived as having been too generous to France’s wealthiest individuals, in
a nation that harbours deep suspicion about the rich.
Above all, many voters have not forgiven the man for his brash and showy
style. A recent poll made him the most unpopular president of France’s fifth
republic, created in 1958.
He had pinned his first round strategy on gunning for the NF vote by pledging
to crack down on insecurity, halve immigration and better protect French
borders – even threatening to suspend France’s membership of the open-border
Schengen treaty unless other countries tightened theirs.
More than half of NF voters must now vote for Mr Sarkozy if he is to stand a
chance of beating Mr Hollande.
“Given these results, Sarkozy is finished,” said Gerard Grunberg, a political
analyst. “His fate is in the hands of Marine Le Pen and she will do nothing
to help him, on the contrary.”
Despite finishing second, Mr Sarkozy last night said the race was closer than
previously suggested and invited those who “love their country to join me”.
He immediately addressed key electoral issues raised by Miss Le Pen, seeking
to capitalise on their vote. “This anxiety, this suffering, I know them, I
understand them,” he said. “They concern our borders, outsourcing, control
of immigration, work, security, for them and their families. I know that in
this fast moving world, the concern of our patriots to preserve their way of
life is the key issue in this election.”
The prospect of victory for Mr Hollande has meanwhile sent jitters round the
City of London, amid concerns that he will relax efforts to cut France’s
debt and deficit and shave its bloated state sector.
However, those fears were partially assuaged last night as the
Communist-backed Left Front candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, fared worse than
expected, winning 10.5-13 per cent of the vote.
François Bayrou, the Centrist candidate and “third man” of the 2007 campaign,
failed to break the expected 10 per cent mark. His electorate is still
crucial for Mr Sarkozy, however.
“This is an election that will weigh on the future of Europe. That’s why many
people are watching us,” said Mr Hollande after voting in Tulle, a town in
central France in a department where he is MP.
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