Complacency over the Falklands could cost Britain dear

The four RAF Typhoon interceptors on permanent stand-by at Mount Pleasant
Airfield are more than capable of seeing off any conventional attack by air
or sea. A Royal Navy warship patrols the area, usually with submarine
support, while the Army provides a permanent garrison whose ranks are
shortly to be joined by the Duke of Cambridge in his capacity as a
search-and-rescue helicopter pilot.

The Duke’s six-week deployment, which starts next month, has raised hackles in
Buenos Aires, where it has been called a “provocative act”. The possibility
that the Argentines might try to pull off a daring operation to capture the
islands cannot be fully discounted.

I remember a former commander of the Falklands garrison telling me that the
best time for the Argies to invade was a Friday night, when the RAF pilots
liked to enjoy some well-earned rest and relaxation in the mess bar. On a
more serious note, Major-General Julian Thompson, who commanded Britain’s
victorious ground assault in 1982, gave a recent talk during which he set
out a convincing scenario in which the Argentines capture or destroy the
Mount Pleasant air strip, thereby denying Britain the ability to send
reinforcements. With no aircraft carrier available until 2025, the prospects
of staging a repeat of the naval task force that liberated the islands in
1982 are zero.

More likely, the next battle for the Falklands will be won or lost over an
international conference table, and on that basis the advantage is very much
with Buenos Aires. As William Hague discovered during his visit to Brazil
this week, Argentina enjoys the support of its Latin American neighbours
over the issue, to the extent that both Chile and Uruguay have recently
caused problems for Royal Navy warships seeking to resupply at their ports.

Nor can we be sure that the Foreign Office, which has displayed an ambivalent
attitude towards this relic of empire, will put up a robust defence. These
days, as Mr Hague’s trip illustrates, the priority is to develop strong
trading ties with the vibrant economies of Latin America, not to reopen old
diplomatic wounds. There will undoubtedly be those in Whitehall who argue
that Britain is paying too high a price for protecting its sovereignty over
the Falklands.

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