China’s slow reforms: a ‘gradual transition’ or recipe for ‘big crisis’?

In the face of China’s unprecedented economic growth over the last two decades, the World Bank issued a surprisingly critical assessment of the country’s prospects in its latest report. But not everybody agrees.

­China 2030, put together by the international financing body and co-authored with a Chinese think-tank, called for the state to loosen its role in the economy. Its authors say that China must privatize the so-called “strategic” sectors of the economy – such as energy, let in more foreign investors to ramp up competition, and stop favoring companies with good government connections.

The report predicts that China will become the world’s largest economy by total purchasing-parity GDP in 2016, but its per-capita incomes will stagnate unless it implements key reforms.

­“Taking their time”

­Analyst and author Adrian Salbuchi believes China is being criticized as much for its failure to adhere to Western expectations as it is for genuine mistakes.

He says, “China is a double system. The big coastal areas have become capitalist, but the hinterland is staunchly communist. What the Chinese are doing shrewdly is taking their time – sometimes decades – to incorporate more and more areas into the new system. But they are doing it at their speed, based on their needs, not those of the US dollar or the Euro.”

­“Big danger for Western economies”

­Richard Wellings from the Institute of Economic Affairs believes gradualism is an excuse for doing nothing

“China should privatize some of its inefficient state industries. The problem is that politicians and officials don’t want to let go,” he says.

But the consequences of China’s inertia could be far-reaching.

“Some of the hugely indebted Western governments rely on the Chinese to buy their bonds. So there is a big danger there. If there is a big sell-off of US Treasury bonds, this could cause a big crisis in America.”

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