Case for ‘big Australia’ bolstered

Intergenerational report

Date/Time: 2011:09:02 21:59:42
Source: The Australian




THE long-term threat to state and federal finances posed by an ageing population has eased, largely as a result of higher immigration, according to a key document due to be released with the NSW budget on Tuesday.


The NSW intergenerational report will be seized upon by proponents of a “big Australia”, such as former prime minister Kevin Rudd, as evidence that higher rates of fertility and immigration increase living standards by countering the effect of a shrinking working-age population. The report will reveal a slowdown in the ageing effect, with the proportion of those in the 65-plus age group in the NSW community projected to grow from 14.1 per cent in 2009 to 24.3 per cent in 2050.

This is lower than the 24.5 per cent predicted to kick in by 2040 in the first intergenerational report, released in 2006. In an exclusive interview with The Weekend Australian yesterday, NSW Treasurer Mike Baird confirmed he would take further drastic measures to consolidate the state’s fiscal position between now and 2050, heightening union fears the NSW Coalition government’s first budget includes major cuts.

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Mr Baird revealed his budget would be the first to narrow the long-term disparity between revenue and expenditure since his Labor predecessor, Michael Costa, commissioned the first intergenerational report in 2006 and introduced legislation to force politicians to address the “fiscal gap” over a 40-year horizon.

“For the first time, a budget will be introduced that’s going to reduce the fiscal gap,” Mr Baird said. “The onus is on any government not only to deal with the challenges of today, but to deal with long-term problems of the future.”

The fiscal gap is the disparity between government income and spending, expressed as a percentage of gross state product, 40 years into the future. Its key drivers are a higher ratio of people in the 65-plus age group — relative to those still producing wealth — along with rising health costs, also largely associated with ageing.

The 2006 intergenerational report put the 40-year gap at 3.4 per cent, but by last year’s budget it had blown out to 4.9 per cent, after the former Labor government ramped up borrowing to fund infrastructure.

Tuesday’s budget will unveil a figure of 2.8 per cent for 2011-12, which Mr Baird said yesterday his measures would reduce by a further full percentage point. On the drop to 2.8 per cent, Mr Baird said: “The key changes are the impacts of higher migration, improved fertility and preliminary health cost data, suggesting health expenses are still large, but maybe not as high as first thought.”

But he said further measures were needed to stop the fiscal gap “rolling across NSW like a tsunami”, pointing out a gap of 2.8 per cent in 2009-10 would have produced a deficit of $11.5 billion, or about a fifth of total state outlays.

His comments will further provoke unions, which yesterday released modelling to show the government’s alleged $5.2bn budget “black hole” between now and 2014-15 was a fiction. Unions NSW boss Mark Lennon said: “All the indications show that the state government is preparing a slash-and-burn budget, but it’s not too late to change tack.”

Mr Costa said the latest report showed “the notion of a big Australia needs to be on the political agenda but is being threatened by policies espoused by the Greens”.

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