Barack Obama re-election hopes hit by rise unemployment

Obama has been counting on an unemployment trajectory that has fallen from a
high of 10 percent in October 2009 to 8.1 percent in April. The president
likes to point to the 3.8 million jobs created since he became president,
though 12.5 million remain unemployed. And his campaign has mounted a
step-by-step assault on Romney’s economic record, from his days as a venture
capitalist to his tenure as Massachusetts governor from 2003-2007.

“The imperative for an incumbent president is to define the race as a choice,”
said Matt Bennett of the centrist-Democratic group Third Way. “Part of doing
that is to define yourself. Equally important, you have to define the other
side so as to avoid it becoming a referendum on the president.”

Romney has aimed heavily at Obama’s economic policies, arguing that they have
slowed the recovery, not aided it. The Republican has emphasized his
background in private business to argue that he’s qualified to lead a nation
in economic turmoil.

On Friday, the Obama campaign released a new online video featuring several of
Romney’s former Republican political foes, including Rick Santorum and Newt
Gingrich, criticizing Romney’s economic record.

For its part, the Romney campaign on Friday released a new television ad
declaring that a Romney presidency would focus from the start on the economy
and the deficit, unleash U.S. energy resources, and stand up to China on
trade. “President Romney’s leadership puts jobs first,” the ad states.

Obama could face the highest unemployment rate on Election Day of any
president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt. But his aides argue that the
trend line is more important than the actual number. Jimmy Carter lost his
re-election bid in 1980 to Ronald Reagan as unemployment climbed from 6
percent to 7.5 percent. George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton in 1992 as
unemployment rose from 6.9 percent to 7.6 percent.

But while Reagan faced an unemployment rate of 7.4 percent in October 1984,
the rate had been dropping since the spring of 1983. He went on to win
re-election.

An Associated Press-GfK poll in May showed that 52 percent of those surveyed
disapproved of Obama’s handling of the economy while 46 percent approved.

Some Republicans note that even though employers might be hiring, many workers
have had to settle for less.

“They are gainfully employed, but they are not happy,” said Wes Anderson, a
Republican pollster. “They don’t like the job they’re in and they’re making
less money.”

And that, Republicans say, makes these voters a prime target for Romney.

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