Baillieu poll plunge puts party on knife edge

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On the eve of what’s expected to be a tough budget tomorrow, Victoria’s Premier Ted Baillieu has slipped into negative territory in the latest opinion polls, reinforcing a trend of growing dissatisfaction with his premiership since last October. The poll, published in The Australian newspaper, shows the Premier would face a knife-edge election if it were held now.

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MARK COLVIN: On the eve of what’s expected to be a tough state budget, Victoria’s Premier, Ted Baillieu, has slipped into negative territory in the latest opinion polls. It reinforces a trend of growing dissatisfaction with his premiership since last October.

The poll in The Australian today, shows the Premier would face a knife edge election if it were held now. But the news isn’t all good for the opposition, its leader, Daniel Andrews’, standing has improved in the polls but he’s still lagging behind Ted Baillieu.

Alison Caldwell reports.

ALISON CALDWELL: Victorian Premier, Ted Baillieu’s, satisfaction rating has fallen 16 points since October, down a further five points since February. The number of people dissatisfied with the way he’s doing his job has jumped seven points to 45 per cent, according to Newspoll.

CEO Martin O’Shannessy.

MARTIN O’SHANNESSY: While the Coalition is clearly ahead by 10 points on primary support of Labor, they have lost a few points, about three in the last Newspoll. When that shakes out into two-party vote it’s brought the Labor Party into contention almost to 50 per cent.

And worryingly for Ted Ballieu there was a pretty strong falloff in his personal rating. And I think he’d be concerned about that when that’s put together with the slight improvement for the Labor vote.

ALISON CALDWELL: Support for the Liberal Party has also fallen. On a two party preferred basis the Coalition was 51 per cent to Labor’s 49 per cent; less than 18 months after securing government with an ever-so-slim one seat majority on the floor of the house.

MARTIN O’SHANNESSY: That commanding lead that they enjoyed is back to more or less where they were at the election. Forty-eight was the two-party preferred, 48.4 to 48.6 at the election; it’s now 49 to 51. So that means that that honeymoon period is over. And now, of course, the process of controlled loss, which all elections are, or all election cycles are is in front of the Baillieu Government.

ALISON CALDWELL: Should Ted Baillieu be worried?

MARTIN O’SHANNESSY: With a one seat majority you always need to be worried. But let’s see, they’re where they were at the election and it’s now time to govern and take the consequences.

ALISON CALDWELL: The only Baillieu Government minister out and about today was the manufacturing minister Richard Dalla-Riva. Asked to comment on the Newspoll figures a dozen times, he refused to be drawn.

RICHARD DALLA-RIVA: What I can say is I’m here to announce a significant amount of money for manufacturers.

REPORTER: What do you think of that Newspoll?

RICHARD DALLA-RIVA: Well as I said I’m here to talk about

JOURNALIST: Are you saying you’re not going to comment on the Newspoll?

RICHARD DALLA-RIVA: Well I’m here to talk about the manufacturing strategy.

ALISON CALDWELL: The poll provides some rare positive news for the Labor leader Daniel Andrews. His satisfaction rating has climbed five points to 28 per cent, that’s eight points shy of the Premier.

Visiting a preschool in North Melbourne today, the opposition leader Daniel Andrews said Labor still has a lot of work to do to win back voters.

DANIEL ANDREWS: The next election is not until the end of 2014 and we’ll be working hard over the next two-and-a-half years to offer a real choice for voters in 2014.

As I’ve said, polls will come and go. But what’s reflected in the polls today is what I hear in communities right across Victoria; people are getting sick and tired of Ted Baillieu not standing up for them, not working hard to keep them in work.

ALISON CALDWELL: The poll results come on the eve of the Victorian state budget. The Government is expected to announce an $8.3 billion write-down in GST, stamp duty and payroll tax revenue over the budget’s forward estimates.

Next year the write-down is expected to be $2.2 billion, suggesting tomorrow’s budget will contain unpopular cuts to remain in surplus.

MARK COLVIN: Alison Caldwell.

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