Assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist is a familiar story

The latest assassination comes at a particularly tense time in Iran’s relations with the West. In the past fortnight, the United States and Europe have begun the process of implementing sanctions that could, for the first time, seriously threaten the Iranian regime’s survival.

Iran has responded by threatening to seal the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil supplies passes, sentencing a US former marine of Iranian descent to death on spying charges and holding war games in the Persian Gulf. This week it announced that uranium enrichment had begun at a second facility, Fordow, buried deep underground – making it much harder to use military force to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme.

Wednesday’s assassination in Tehran was not a response to any of these developments. Such a mission requires months of preparation. It is a sign, however, that the use of covert methods to slow Iran’s nuclear progress continue apace.

How effective the assassinations have been remains unclear. Experts generally agree that the most effective covert strike was the deployment of the Stuxnet computer virus, which caused the uranium-enriching centrifuges at Natanz to spin out of control and then blow up. Stuxnet, probably developed in a joint mission by Israel, the United States and Britain, allegedly set back the Iranian nuclear programme by more than 12 months.

But the effects of the virus have worn off, which may be why more violent methods are again being used. In November of last year, an explosion at an Iranian missile base killed 17 of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard, among them Maj Gen Hassan Moghaddam, thought to be the architect of Iran’s missile programme.

The base also housed some of Iran’s Shahab-3 missiles, the likely vehicle for a nuclear warhead if Tehran chooses to follow that path. A covert assassination project will both infuriate Iran and hamper its progress, but is unlikely to prove pivotal enough to make Tehran abandon its project. Indeed, it is likely to do the reverse.

With the end of its decades-long nuclear quest is in sight, Iran’s vice president, Mohammed Reza Rahimi, said after the assassination that the country was now more determined than ever to reach that goal.

Views: 0

You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

Leave a Reply

Powered by WordPress | Designed by: Premium WordPress Themes | Thanks to Themes Gallery, Bromoney and Wordpress Themes