‘Arming Syrian rebels is not the answer’

Press TV has talked with international security expert, Bob Ayers to further discuss the issue of Syria and foreign interventions in its internal affairs.

The program also provides the insights of two other guests, Hisham Jaber, director of Center for Middle East Studies from Beirut and Dimitry Babich, political analyst from Moscow. What follows is an approximate transcript of the interview:

Press TV: Let me ask Mr. Ayres what he thinks about the latest developments in the tension between the two states. Now the fact that Mr. Vladimir Putin seems to be the most powerful man in the Russian modern times, that is quite clear to everyone but it seems that the United States wants to punish him or try to create fraud charges. Some analysts believe this is an old US trick that would not work.

Ayers: We have to examine what has been happening in Russia against the backdrop of the recent election. Putin was once again running for office and he had been cultivating the image of being a hard man, standing up for Russia, defending Russia against the imperialists who are trying to surround and violate the country and this was an election image.

What is fascinating is that the election is now over and we are beginning to see Putin reverting to some of the old lessons he learnt in the KGB [the Soviet Union’s Secret Police] rounding up the opposition, suppressing any opposition on the streets. He is not the same strong man that he was four, six, eight years ago.

He has now being weakened, the population is no longer willing to just automatically go along with whatever Putin says he wants to do, or whatever he thinks the country should do.

Press TV: Yes, that is probably an internal issue. How about the Middle East? How was it possible, now do you think how can he face the United States? Is he really an obstacle to its interest in the region?

Ayers: Well, I think what we saw with regard to Syria, was almost an automatic response by Russia.

Traditionally the Middle East had been an area where the Soviets and the Americans faced off and they chose up size, they had their client states and they used that as an area to confront each other.

Now as the previous speaker said the only Soviet … Russian client state left is Syria and the Russian response was to automatically defend their sole remaining Mideast ally from any sort of intervention by the United Nations or the West.

But [what] we are also seeing interestingly enough, is that the Russian defense of Syria is beginning to waver a bit, it is not nearly as unquestioning and [unequivocal] as it was four, five or six months ago.

Press TV: Do you think that Russia would be able to stand in the face of the United States and it would be some kind of an obstacle for its interest with the fact that in the United Nations Security Council it can stop all the resolutions that have been taken in the case of Syria and perhaps even in the case of Iran?

Ayers: Well, we have to bear in mind one fact here, and that is that what we are seeing happening in the Middle East and in the Mediterranean littoral parts of Africa; Tunisia, Libya, Egypt. We are seeing fundamentally, popular uprisings.

These are not being created by the United States; [these] are not being created by Russia. These are happening on their own accord, and we are seeing the same thing happening in Syria.

Now, what is going on now is an interesting situation from the perspective of Russian foreign policy.

There is an increase in belief that the Assad regime will fall. That the popular discontent will continue to grow, and ultimately that the regime will collapse.

When that happens, whoever takes power is going to take power knowing full well that the Russians have obstructed any relief or any assistance that they could have received in their revolution and that puts the Russians in a very awkward position of having lost their only true ally client state in the Mideast. They must be very careful.

Press TV: … Do you think that the Arab League is actually just representing the US stance, when it comes to the issue of Syria and not actually brokering something between the Syrians themselves?

Ayers: No, I think the Arab League is representing their own interests and their primary interest is stability in the region and Syria is a serious threat to the stability in the region. As we have been talking about for the last half an hour, the Syrian situation is drawing in external powers to involve themselves in the events in Syria.

This is against the objectives of the Arab league. They want to be left to their own, they do not want foreign intervention and that is not necessarily the US policy; that is not the Russian policy. That is the policy of the Arab League.

Press TV: I want to ask you about this issue and about what is coming up next?

Do you think that the visit of the UN special envoy Mr. Kofi Annan, his visit to Syria is indicative that the military solution is over, is put aside, and now we are focusing on a political solution to the crisis?

Ayers: I think what we are going to see happen in Syria, is a continuation of proposals for ceasefire, proposals for political solutions, proposals for negotiations between different parties.

But ultimately what is going to happen is, while the world discusses the problem, Syria will continue to be torn apart by this internal revolve that is occurring now.

Both the superpowers, the Russians for example and the Americans for example, in spite of what they say, they do not want to intervene in this.

They wish it to be over; they wish it to be something they no longer have to deal with and they are going to keep their fingers crossed and hope that it comes to some sort of a conclusion soon. Unfortunately I do not believe that is going to happen.

Press TV: Another quick question, you think that the United States- Israel will waver when it comes to supporting the Syrian opposition, since they have refused to arm the armed groups, the Syrian opposition inside Syria?

Ayers: We have to remember that arming the opposition groups is not as easy as a lot of people may think ought to be.

Even if the US took the decision to arm the opposition groups which I do not believe they will ever do, you then have the problem of how do you get weapons into Syria, into Homs, into the hands of the rebellious opposition groups?

You cannot just put them in a truck and drive across Syria and say come get your heavy weapons.

The Assad government still controls the borders; they still control the majority of the land in that country. And to arm the opposition groups, you have to have access to them, and the way you will have to get access to them is either overland and you would be interdicted or you try to fly them in by air, in which case the Syrian Air Force would interdict you and you are going to have to then fight the Syrian Air Force to open an air corridor to arm the opposition. Arming the opposition is not really an answer; it is not really a practical solution.

MY/AHK/PKH

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