Analysis: Iran’s Syria deal shows just how far Tehran is prepared to go

The key risk is that Mr Assad is toppled regardless of Iran’s support. If so, his successor would almost certainly be a Sunni, reflecting the religious loyalty of about 70 per cent of Syrians. As such, any new regime would be instinctively hostile towards Iran’s Shia theocracy.

Moreover, the full extent of Iran’s backing for Mr Assad, even as his security forces have killed thousands of ordinary Syrians, is only now coming to light. This alone may serve to discredit Iran in the eyes of any new regime in Damascus. As Ayatollah Khamenei considers grand schemes for linking his country with Syria, he might reflect that this crisis may be almost as dangerous for him as it is for Mr Assad.

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