An independent Scotland may not get triple A status, rating agencies warn

By
Alan Roden

Last updated at 12:59 AM on 7th February 2012

Scottish independence could lead to deeper public service cuts amid fresh fears for the country’s prized triple-A credit rating.

Three leading rating agencies have failed to back SNP claims that Scotland would retain the gold-standard if the UK is torn apart.

A senior sovereign bond analyst said the rating ‘would be investment grade but [would] fall short of AAA’.

Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond has outlined the referendum consultation, but credit agencies have warned the country may not be granted triple A status

Scotland’s First Minister Alex Salmond has outlined the referendum consultation, but credit agencies have warned the country may not be granted triple A status

If an independent Scotland was downgraded by the ‘bond vigilantes’, it could push up borrowing costs for the Scottish Government and leave ministers with less cash to spend on roads, schools and hospitals.

The warnings were last night dismissed by the Nationalist administration, which claimed to be ‘entirely confident’ of retaining a triple-A rating.

But the Financial Times reported that three leading agencies – Standard Poor’ s, Moody’s and Fitch – have all ‘indicated’ that an independent Scotland would not automatically inherit the top-notch grade.

MEANWHILE BROKEN BRITAIN IS ON THE MEND

The economic crisis has led to 85 per cent of adults deciding to take action when previously they would have sat back, a study claims.

74 per cent of respondents were re-evaluating what is important to them and increasingly challenging the status quo in their communities, careers and home life, according to The Why Not Britain report, commissioned by AXA.

In a survey of 2,000 adults 69 per cent would put family over work, while 63 per cent were rethinking what to do with their lives.

76 per cent of 18-34 year-olds were preparing to take risks over the next two years to improve their lives, while 51 per cent believed the economic crisis will lead to a stronger society in the future.

The report identified how the people at the forefront of the movement were made up of three distinct groups: ‘local heroes’ who cleaned up after the 2011 riots; ‘new self starters’ establishing enterprises that deliver profit and improve society; and ‘challengers’ who question the world around them and seek out new challenges

The UK currently has a triple-A score, which is the highest possible rating that can be given to a company or country.

The gold standard means a borrower can usually secure a loan at lower interest rates, as there is much less risk that the money will not be repaid.

Losing the rating or being downgraded can, in some cases, have a fatal effect on a country’s ability to borrow money on the markets.

If an independent Scotland failed to reach the grade, it could push up borrowing costs for the government, making debt harder to sell.

Credit agencies have refused to comment publicly on the situation, because they do not undertake unsolicited ratings and the Scottish Government has not sought a draft opinion.

Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont said last night: ‘The economic case for separation is unravelling by the day.

‘I find it extraordinary that the SNP have not even approached the credit agencies for a draft opinion. Basically, they are asking the people of Scotland to take a gamble on the economic future of the country.

‘While independence may be an article
of blind faith for the SNP, people deserve to know the real
consequences of breaking away from the rest of the United Kingdom.

‘From these revelations, it would
appear the consequences are that more money would be spent on borrowing
and less on school, hospitals and other public services.’

Scottish Conservative finance
spokesman Gavin Brown added: “Ratings agencies are taken extremely
seriously by investors all over the world, and this warning is therefore
deeply concerning.

‘A drop of just one notch would have
severe consequences for our economy and it is vital that we maintain
triple-A status. If we are to present ourselves as a country worth
investing in we must be seen as a solid economic prospect, and the
rating the UK currently holds guarantees this.’

Scottish Finance Secretary John Swinney said the government was confident of getting the triple A rating

Scottish Finance Secretary John Swinney said the government was confident of getting the triple A rating

Moody’s sovereign bond rating methodology states that countries will be marked down if they do not have a long record.

‘Immature economic and political institutions increase the risk of unpredictable behaviour in times of stress, inviting negative credit implications,’ it states.

It adds that countries more vulnerable to “sudden changes to the economy” can expect lower ratings, which has potential repercussions for an independent Scotland because the country would be at the mercy of volatile oil prices.

A senior sovereign bond analyst at a leading rating agency told the Financial Times that a sensible guess for Scotland was that ‘the rating would be investment grade but [would] fall short of AAA’.

Labour leader Johann Lamont said the economic case for Scottish independence was 'unravelling by the day'

Labour leader Johann Lamont said the economic case for Scottish independence was ‘unravelling by the day’

But a Scottish Government spokesman said: ‘The UK’s deteriorating growth outlook has led the credit ratings agencies to question the UK’s triple-A status – which is one reason why Scotland needs full access to the economic and financial levers of government so that we can boost growth, recovery and jobs.

‘We are entirely confident of Scotland having the top credit rating – in common with other small nations such as Finland, Denmark, Norway and Luxembourg – and that position is supported by Scotland having stronger public finances than the UK as a whole, and lower public sector debt. 

Indeed, nearly two-thirds of the countries deemed to have triple-A status by Standard Poor’s have a population of less than £10million.

‘In addition, Oil and Gas UK estimate that the sector boosted the UK’s balance of trade in goods and services by £32billion in 2010 – almost halving the UK’s deficit.’

The spokesman said there are ‘no immediate plans’ to ask for a draft opinion from ratings agencies, but added: ‘This remains an option as we move closer to the referendum.’

Here’s what other readers have said. Why not add your thoughts,
or debate this issue live on our message boards.

The comments below have not been moderated.

So it’s acceptable to be a Scottish, Irish or Welsh nationalist, but not an English nationalist, why is this double standard tolerated?
Stand up for yourselves for once, regain that fighting spirit that enable you to spread civilisation to most of the world, otherwise you deserve your rotten fate.
Time for a revolution!!!

The funniest deal ever over oil, was the one england done with iran, when they created, the anglo iranian oil company.(now BP) the deal was, they would swap sugar to the iranians, for oil, but, the iranians were only alowed fifteen percent of the revenues, and they were not allowed to see the books. so for many years Iran was a fuel tank for the royal navy.Then some US accountant told the king of iran, the british were ripping them off, in come the USA and out go the UK, US give the iranians 50% of the revenues, and let them see the books. We know how that ended, iranians finally thought, 50% was garbage, and wanted the whole 100%, meanwhile, the anglo iranian oil company was in scotland, doing pretty much the same deal with the scotts, you pay your taxes, we take the oil, in return, we give you 15% more revenue back, than you should get. Unfortunately, no US accountant turned up, slapped us across the face, and said, “they are ripping you off, we will give you 50%, and show the books

Build the biggest chainsaw ever – saw Scotland off, and float it away into the north sea. True independence from England.

Stephen, St. Ives, England, 6/2/2012 20:43 Yes we know that stephen, thats why we are letting england go, we know you cant carry us any longer, and we feel guilty about it, you are tired of paying for all the worlds poor, and all the poor of the EEC, and countries like india etc, so we are setting an example to the rest of the world, by voluntarily stopping leaching from you, and in a few years, the rest of the world will stop, then you can all retire, and just live of the riches you have saved by not funding the rest of the world, your fifty million a day to the EEC, your billions to scotland, india and the rest of the world, only thing that confuses me, is why are you so desperate to give us and the indians money, and you dont want to give the EEC money.

For all the Scots who think North Sea oil will help them out the GERS figures for 2009/10 showed Scotland had £48 billion in revenue including North Sea oil and had a £14 billion deficit add to that the Barnett funding of £8 billion Scotland gets and Scotland had a current spending deficit of £22 billion for 2009/10 and things have got worse since then. Even if Scotland only takes the share of national debt as calculated as a proportion of the UK population that constitues Scotland by independence that will give Scotland a national debt of over 100%, with the new banking rules coming in no-one will lend to Scotland so there will be a massive reduction in the standard of living in Scotland. In the UK 1p of income tax raises £4 billion with a twelfth the population to raise the same figure they’ll have to raise tax by 12p so to raise the £22 billion shortfall income tax would have to go up by 66p in the pound. If that happens Scotland will see massive migration.

Alex Salmond leading the Scoltland to dangerous path. – Lilly, Salford . . . . . . He certainly is. He’s more dangerous for the whole UK than Brown, Blair, Darling, Balls, Clegg, Cameron, etc all rolled into one.

To those Scots wondering why all the recent and unusual bile from a lot of the English – it’s called long due retaliation, understand, retaliation. If you can’t take it – don’t try to hand it out.

‘Britain allows people living abroad to vote in Elections, Carol, Brighton, 6/2/2012 23:29’
…………………You mean Westminster Carol. Holyrood will only allow Scots to vote.

How many “Experts” were consulted for this opinion ?
I was told it was only one.
Would you trust the opinion of a panel of financial analysts ?
How about the opinion of one ?

As a Scot who has lived the majority of my adult life south of the border, I am fed up hearing that many of my countrymen ‘hate’ the English. I believe those that do generally have not lived among or even know English people very well. We are all just trying our best to make our way in life, earn our crust and feed our families, whether we’re doing it in the north or south.
No Scot I know has any time for this mad independence proposal and I think it’s likely to fail as miserably as Clegg’s AV referendum. HOWEVER, if Scots DO vote to become ‘independent, I believe that’s exactly what they should be… no hanging on to the good bits of being in the UK (pound, monarch, defence, etc) as if they were a dependent entity like the Falklands. Live by your own means. If you succeed, great, but please let’s get it over and done with and move on.

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