American Way: ‘Mr Invincible’ has yet to convince Republican core voters that he is their candidate

According to opinion polling, Romney emerged from the Florida primary contest
with his national approval rating among the independent voters who will
determine who sits in the White House for the next four years upside down:
51 per cent unfavourable to 23 per cent favourable.

All this after the former Massachusetts governor and his supporters reportedly
spent $16 million in Florida. The campaign aired 3,276 ads – 99 per cent of
them negative, attacking other candidates. And Restore our Future, the
nominally independent campaign group or “Super PAC” that supports
Romney, ran a further 4,969 – all negative.

Such groups have been made possible by a recent Supreme Court ruling that
allows such groups to raise unlimited money from undisclosed donors. And
their advent means the tone of American politics, already often brutal and
nasty, has become significantly more negative than before. It may have
helped Romney win among Republcians, but could explain some of the distaste
felt by independent voters.

In the closing days of the contest, Romney seemed to relish pounding Newt
Gingrich – the leading “Not Romney” candidate – laughing and
smirking about the attacks. It was no real surprise, then, when Gingrich
failed to acknowledge Romney’s victory in his “concession” speech,
or call to congratulate him on the win – as is traditionally done.

Of course, Gingrich had vowed to continue the fight “until June or July”
before qualifying that remark with great aplomb, “unless Romney drops
out sooner”.

So, it’s pretty clear the former House Speaker has no intention of going
quietly into the night; he intends to stick around as long as possible, and
inflict some measure of revenge.

Romney was awarded 50 delegates under the Sunshine State state’s
winner-takes-all rule. A big prize, but he has accumulated only six per cent
of the delegates needed to win the nomination, and more than 90 per cent of
states still have to vote.

Some observers, including me, have made the argument that drawn-out primary
contests are often a good thing as they make the ultimate winners more
battle-tested for the general election. Barack Obama is “Exhibit A”:
Hillary Clinton took him on a long and arduous march through the 2008
primary season, but it made him a better, tougher candidate.

That may not be the case with Romney. The longer he has to stay in the fray of
the primaries, the more likely he is to produce the kind of unforced error
that completely stepped on news of his Florida victory, killing the buzz.

During his victory lap of press interviews the day after his decisive win, he
said to a CNN reporter: “I’m not concerned about the very poor.”

In fairness, the full context included: “We have a safety net there. If
it needs repair, I’ll fix it. I’m not concerned about the very rich –
they’re doing just fine.”

But politics isn’t fair, and the airwaves since the unfortunate remark have
been saturated with the clip. And one can only imagine what Team Obama will
do with it in the autumn.

Romney was trying to say that his focus was on the middle class, but he ended
up reinforcing his greatest vulnerability: the perception that he is rich,
elite, and out of touch with the common voter. And then, inexplicably,
Romney only reinforced his problems a day later by standing on stage at a
Las Vegas casino hotel to accept the endorsement of one of the country’s
most outrageous billionaires, Donald Trump.

Romney’s chances look good in the rest of this month’s primary contests,
including his near certain win on Saturday night in Nevada. Gingrich will be
waiting in the weeds on Super Tuesday in early March, when a large clutch of
southern states, more conservative and more favourable to the former House
Speaker, get to voice their preference.

“Mr Inevitable” Romney is still likely to survive and eventually
secure the Republican nomination. But with a pattern of unforced errors like
last week’s, his prospect of winning the general election is far from secure.

Mark McKinnon, a former Republican adviser, is Global Vice Chair of
Hill+Knowlton Strategies

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