American Way: How the Obamacare Supreme Court ruling is a win-win-win

Unusually, from a political perspective, this is a victory for everyone.

President Obama gets a very much needed boost after a terrible month of bad
news. Had the law been struck down, he would have been left looking small
and ineffective with no real major legislative achievements on which to
campaign.

Now he can say he did something big and bold. He can talk about covering 30
million Americans who previously had no health coverage; ensuring people
with pre-existing conditions get coverage, allowing children to remain
covered under their parents’ plans until they are aged 26, and lifting the
lifetime maximum benefit on plans.

On the other hand, John Roberts may have actually handed Republicans an even
sharper blade with which to cut and wound Obama. They were always going to
run against “Obamacare”, the derogatory nickname for the
president’s reforms, which remains largely unpopular (54 per cent of
Americans want the law repealed).

But now they can run against it as the largest tax increase in US history.

During the original debate over the legislation, near the start of his
presidency, the television journalist and former Bill Clinton adviser George
Stephanopoulos pressed Obama on whether he was imposing an additional tax. “No…
absolutely not a tax increase,” was Obama’s response.

A 2008 presidential campaign issue, the health care reform legislation was
intended to reduce health care costs, to expand access to quality health
care, and to ensure more Americans were covered by health insurance plans.

Despite public opposition, it was passed in the US Senate late on Dec 24,
2009, and in the House of Representatives the following March. Votes were
cast along party lines in both chambers, with only one Republican Senator
voting for it and only 34 Democrat Representatives voting against.

President Obama signed the bill into law. Nowhere in the 2,000 or so pages of
the legislation was the word “tax” used.

The decision by the Supreme Court deeming Obamacare constitutional does not
make the reforms any more popular. Obama already had to find a way to
justify sticking the public with 21 new taxes since he took office,
according to analysis by the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation.

They alone will cost taxpayers $675 billion over the next 10 years. Now he
must justify another.

And Mitt Romney will make certain to remind voters that on the campaign trail
in 2008 Obama promised: “If you’re a family making less than $250,000 a
year, my plan won’t raise your taxes one penny.”

Yet, according to the Congressional Budget Office today, at least 75 per cent
of the taxes represented by Obamacare’s individual mandate – the compulsory
insurance purchase – will fall on those earning less than $250,000.

Finally, in an environment in which all politics lately have been viewed as
radically hyper-partisan, the Court and John Roberts demonstrated that at
least one branch of government still has the fortitude and capability to
made a decision that is being viewed as fair and impartial.

I call that a “win-win-win”.

Mark McKinnon, a former Republican strategist who worked on the
campaigns of George W Bush and John McCain, is Global Vice Chair of
Hill+Knowlton Strategies

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