Al-Qaeda gravely weakened by the loss of key figures

Three groups have assumed particular importance: “al-Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula” (AQAP), based in Yemen, “al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb”
(AQIM), found in the Saharan region of West Africa, and al-Shabaab, which
controls a large area of southern Somalia.

Of these, only AQAP has demonstrated both the intention and capability to
strike Western targets. One of its operatives was the Nigerian student who
tried to destroy a US airliner over Detroit on Christmas Day 2009 with
explosives concealed in his underwear. AQAP also planted bombs on cargo
planes bound for the US in 2010. These attacks failed only because the
devices failed to detonate.

Since then, however, America has begun using drones in Yemen, with Anwar
al-Awlaki, AQAP’s chief propagandist, falling victim last September.

Zawahiri, a 60-year-old Egyptian doctor, still represents the original
al-Qaeda, yet without bin Laden’s personal appeal. “Zawahiri was always
seen as Osama bin Laden’s right-hand man, but not as a leader,” said
Maha Azzam, from the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham
House. “He doesn’t possess the kind of charisma that bin Laden
possessed.”

Nor does he have the profile of al-Qaeda’s dead leader. Zawahiri has said
nothing in public since February, when he released a video purporting to
support the uprising against Syria’s regime.

That highlighted one of al-Qaeda’s most wounding defeats. The Arab leaders
whom it most wanted to destroy – notably President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt –
were overthrown by popular revolts, not bin Laden or his followers. As such,
the Arab Spring highlighted al-Qaeda’s increasing irrelevance and its
failure to win over Muslim opinion.

Instead, last year’s uprisings “came to reflect a different kind of
ambition”, said Ms Azzam, involving the “end of dictatorial
regimes, not necessarily in the name of Western-style democracy, but
certainly not in the name of a bin Ladenist state”.

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