Some example of this:
World Trade Slumps By Most Since Financial Crisis
Something Just Snapped: Container Freight Rates From Asia To Europe Crash 23% In One Week
Global Trade In Freefall: Container Freight Rates From Asia To Europe Crash 60% In Three Weeks
South Korea Exports Crash Most Since 2009
And of course China’s terrible trade data for the past 5 months, which has seen the longest stretch of import declines since the financial crisis.
In short: only an economist, either a tenured one or one employed by CNBC, is unable to see that the world is sinking into a global trade recession, with a economic one soon to follow.
Where things get more complicated, however, is when looking at the US. Here, macro data throughout the summer had suggested more or less smooth sailing in the trade space, and it was only a week ago that the facade started to crack, following the ugly advance trade report, when as we reported there was a “16% Surge In August Trade Deficit; Imports Jump As Exports Drop.”
But what really confused us, and others, was the “micro” reports from the ground. Take the following article from Bloomberg in September, in which we read that “Record Long Beach Port Traffic Shows Strength in U.S. Demand.” Some more details:
The Port of Long Beach — which is poised to overtake neighboring Los Angeles next year to become the No. 1 shipping gateway in the country — had a record month in July, with cargo volume up 18 percent from July 2014. Figures being released later this month will show unprecedented traffic again in August, and early signs in September are “very very encouraging,” Jon Slangerup, the Long Beach port’s chief executive officer, said in an interview at Bloomberg’s offices in New York last week.
Overall, the two ports are handling 4 percent more cargo this year than last, Slangerup said. With consumers showing no letup, he predicted a record year for Long Beach in 2015, taking out pre-recession highs set in 2007. West Coast ports are poised to regain share lost earlier in the year, when backlogs led clients to divert cargo to East Coast destinations like Savannah, Georgia, he said.
The article’s punchline:
“When you look at the macros, you look at unemployment, consumer confidence, savings, available discretionary spending, all of those numbers suggest that we have more to spend,” Slangerup said. “The economy here is super strong relative to the rest of the world, and the strongest I’ve seen it in a very long time.”
As it turns out, the economy was neither “super strong”, nor was “unemployment, consumer confidence, savings, or available discretionary spending” suggesting that we have more to spend. In fact just the opposite, because thanks to the WSJ we can now reconcile the seeming discrepancy between slowing macro and booming micro, at least as manifested by “record” west coast port traffic.
According to the WSJ, “shipments of empty containers out of the U.S. are surging this year, highlighting the impact the economic slowdown in China is having on U.S. exporters. The U.S. imports more from China than it sends back, but certain American industries—including those that supply scrap metal and wastepaper—feed China’s industrial production.”
Source Article from https://www.freedomsphoenix.com/News/184858-2015-10-14-a-third-of-all-containers-shipped-from-long-beach-port.htm?EdNo=001&From=RSS
Related posts:
Views: 0